2021 : China Pushed Back From 1959 Claim Line, 2036 Will See Vacation of Rest of Occupied Ladakh
By
Colonel Awadhesh Kumar, Veteran Special Forces
Erstwhile Army Commander of Northern Command, Lt General H S Panag has recently said “If we get another 30 years, then we will be in a position to create the desired military capability, build up our economy, reduce the gap, not that we can catch up with China but to the extent between the US and China. There is still a huge gap between the US and China but China is no longer a pushover for the US. What China gains out of it is that if there is no quarrel left with India, New Delhi has no reason to ally with the US to contest China.”
Firstly, by now one thing should have become very clear to China that India will have friendship with all those who extend their hand of friendship which is very distinct from getting into a military alliance. Even when the Chinese had backstabbed during the Panchsheel days, India never accepted the alliance offer of the West.
Secondly, ever since Doklam, right through the Maldives crisis of 2018 and the 2020 Ladakh incidents, India has stood up to China and is ready to stand up without conceding an inch. India has now clearly emerged as the one country which will not concede to China militarily, politically, economically or commercially, no matter what.
The Indian military action of August 29-30 resulting in physical capture of the heights of Rezang La, Rechin La, Mokhpari, Muggar Hill and Gurung Hill firmly showcase our WILL and intent. By occupying these heights, now we have a clear sight of Chinese camps and its supply routes, an easy target for interdiction by observed fire.
Thirdly, in next 15 years India is going to become a + 5 trillion economy in $ GDP terms and much more in PPP terms. It also means that to avoid any future conflicts India must prepare, redouble efforts to build its border infrastructure and narrow the gap as fast as possible.
It also has no option but to have a 54 Squadron Air Force and a Navy with 4 Carrier Battle Groups. It also has to become a Space Power too with a base on Chandrama and Probes exploring Shukra, Mangal, Brihspati and beyond.
Right upto 16th Century it was India with nearly 30 % of theWorld GDP and China with around 25% that dominated the World not militarily but Commercially. History also says clearly that whenever Indians ruled the Waves or even just dominated it, peace prevailed in the Indian Ocean Region and parts of Indo Pacific, helping trade and commerce to flourish.
Thus unlike 1962 and thereafter, this time India responded to the Chinese moves in the Himalayas on all major fronts — military, economic, diplomatic and political. India loudly and clearly announced to the World that the attack on Indian troops at Galwan will ensure that hence forth there will be NO BUSINESS as usual between the two Countries. All these moves helped in creating a situation, where either Beijing had to call its bluff and attack India or pull back.
An outmanuevavered China found out that PLA was ill prepared this time to carry out any military escalation as India had matched its troop deployment. Also India was ready to shift the battle into the Indian Ocean Region and choke its jugular vein …..the Shipping lanes. China also saw that West was willing to bend backwards for making India join its anti China military alliance.
The Government of India’s considered decision to delink its economic relationship with China in a phased manner took China by surprise and soon they realized their strategic blunder. Having physically clashed with the Indian Army, they could not move the WTO thus making it irrelevant in this Scenario. Also many other countries seething with anger due to Wuhan Virus began a slow but sure action to diversify their dependence on the Chinese manufacturing and logistical supply chain.
India’s vehement objections against the China Pakistan Economic Corridor was not taken seriously by China and it also did not bother much when India refused to endorse the OBOR initiative but now the results on ground have shaken the Chinese.Similarly Tpthe result of India refusing to join the Chinese dominated Regional Comprehensive Ecinomic Partnership too will become evident in foreseeable future.
India’s friendship with other countries ensured that in case of a War all its key military supplies would remain intact. In fact there was a visit of Commander Indo Pacific Theatre of the USA to offer the required military hardware even from its own reserves. China also realized that any wrong move on its part was likely to turn the QUAD into an actual military alliance to patrol the South China Sea. India has now also indicated that it is not averse to playing its Tibet Card and establishing full diplomatic relationship with Taiwan.
With all these things going on externally and the Hong Kong crisis internally, the forthcoming grand meet of the Chinese Communist Party in July becomes crucial. The meet will definitely see some major changes in the Party Politburo and the Central Military Commission. Any adverse event externally may trigger changes internally which may not be favourable to Xi and his supporters.
Thus China had to “ gracefully” pull out from its current position …..It could not afford being thrown out as such. So PLA has moved back. This, the India-China disengagement along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh will naturally be trumpeted by the Government of India as a victory, no matter what any one may say including some actual military experts.
In this phase of disengaement instead of reinforcing their 2020 Claim Line, the Chinese have gone back t. Now we need to ensure a “ peace “ for atleast next 15 years. Thereafter may come the second phase of disengaement where either Chinese move back on their own or are forced to.
In 1959, China’s then Prime Minister Zhou Enlai had proposed to Nehru that the armies of both the countries withdraw 20 km from the McMohan Line in the East and from the LAC in the West. Through its intrusions since May, China had reached the 1959 claim line in Depsang and north of Pangong Tso. The militaries of both sides since then had been locked in a faceoff along the same line.
