54 Squadrons needed for IAF by 2030, it is doable
By Colonel Awadhesh Kumar
By 2030, PAF is likely to be getting its two Squadrons of so called 5th Generation Chinese J35 Stealth Fighters and there by reducing the present edge which IAF has, to quite an extent.
Meanwhile even the PLAAF should be deploying several squadron of these in Chinese Occupied Tibet. Even Bangladesh may be given a few Squadrons of J20 Chinese jet fighters.
No wonder the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has formed a high-level committee to address shortages in the Indian Air Force (IAF).
The committee headed by the Defence Secretary includes, Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) chairman, Secretary Defence Production and Deputy Chief of Air Staff.
The IAF squadron strength has come to an all-time low of 32 (15 x Sukhois, 3 x Mirages, 3 x MiG29, 5 x Canberras, 2 x Tejas Mk1, 2 x Rafale and 2 x Bisons).
So there has to be accelerated indigenous production and selective purchasing (the last one time for the country).
IAF had anticipated fighter aircraft shortages more than twenty years back but our Saint Anthony in the MoD just twiddled his thumb along with the other members of the Cabinet Committee Security.
Things became so bad that to get some breathing space finally, 36 were bought off-the-shelf in a government-to-government (G2G) deal.
Even this got opposed by Congress Party by then in the opposition. Two Squadrons of TEJAS Mk1 also got inducted and the TEJAS MK-1A, was to begin inducting in March 2024.
However then came a shocker either due to COVID effect or as per design and General Electrics announced a year+ delay in supply of engines. IAF was forced to extend the remaining MiG-21 fleet till 2025.
Hopefully by March 2026 we will be having 24 X TEJAS Mk1A. MoD has no choice but to ensure that IAF gets 44 x TEJAS Mk1A by March 2027 and at the same rate till March 2030.
Thus bringing up the strength of TEJAS Mk1A / Mk1 to 240 fighters or 12 Squadrons. For this we may have to select a private Indian Company forthwith.
The HAL TEJAS MK-2 Medium Weight Fighter (MWF), a fourth generation +++ fighter or nearly as good in capabilities as the Chinese J35, too must commence mass production in 2027-28, so as to provide 60 fighters or 3 Squadrons by 2030.
Though these are very optimistic figures, considering that we are dependent on foreign engines once again. Here too HAL must find a private partner at this stage itself who can support production.
Approval for the manufacture of DRDO-HAL Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) was accorded in March 2024 with first flight scheduled in 2028.
This needs to be accelerated so that mass production starts by 2032. Hopefully with own Kaveri engines by that time (all pedals must be pressed to go for super fast mode) things should be smooth.
Meanwhile by 2030 we will still be having only 43 Squadrons (15 x Sukhois, 15 x Tejas, 3 x Mirage, 3 x MiG 29, 5 x Jaguar and 2 x Rafale).
Therefore without hesitation and making a public declaration, the Government must start Govt to Govt negotiations for purchase of 6 x Rafale Squadrons, 3 x Sukhoi 57 Squadrons and 1 x second hand Mirage 2000 and 1 x MiG29 Squadron.
Side by side PMO must press for all the Force Multipliers and move the MoD be into a galloping mode. So instead of six Netra 2 we need to go for 12 at a fast mode and ensure that planned six Netra 1 join the existing fleet of three at the earliest.
The strength of three phalcon AWACS too needs to be increased to Nine. The refueller fleet needs to be tripled to 18 aircrafts. For all this we have just six years in Dec 2030.
The remaining battery of S400 must get deployed in 2025 along with our own Area defence systems.
Drones have to be utilized as an effective force multiplier. India has large number of drone start-ups. Adani Group, in a joint venture with Israel’s Elbit, is making Hermes 450 and 900 UAS variants in India. All effort need to be integrated.
The 31 of the General Atomics MQ-9B armed High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) UCAVs costing Rs 30000 Crores will start only from January 2029 and hopefully completed by end 2030.
Thus the DRDO TAPAS-BH-201 medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) which has been under development for long and now must go for mass production.
A bright star has been our missile development and production. Astra missiles, Akash missiles and BRAHMOS all have done very well.
Further development of advanced variants with longer ranges and fool proof avionics must be accelerated.
