Encircling India In The IOR By Any Power Is A Wishful Thinking
By
Colonel Awadhesh Kumar, Special Forces
China is building a string of pearls – military and political — in the Indian Ocean region, as many started labelling the Chinese initiative to increase its footprint through trade, investment and infrastructure building and also through anti piracy patrols off the African Coast. Now it seems that India with one stroke has scattered all the pearls and along with it the theory expounded by “experts”.
A few years back China established a so called military base in Djibuti with around 1000 personnel. Now how this has become a threat to India, only God knows. Even with 10000 men in Djibuti, it can pose no threat to India. In case of actual conflict with India, this garrison will actually become a big liability for China. No resupply or re reinforcement will be feasible and the base will be doomed from the word go.
The Maldives crisis last year clearly demonstrated the assertiveness of India in the Indian Ocean Region and it displayed the Indian confidence to the whole world. No wonder this time Modi has chosen Male and Colombo for his first foreign visit after forming his government for the second time. In 2014 it was Thimpu and Kathmandu.
China can trade as much as it wants with countries small and big surrounding India and in the Indian Ocean region. It can help these countries in infrastructure building but if there is ever hint of any military type activity then suddenly there will be counter actions in similar manner by India. Also in case there is any defiance or open hostilities then China will have to just move out.
In case an armed conflict emerges from either a ‘misstep’ or a more calculated provocation, in the Indian Ocean then the Chinese stand no chance against the Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force. The control over shipping lanes is more important than elsewhere, and totally dominated by India.
Even the mighty British Empire was sustained not by the British Isles but by India. It is for nothing that the World knows this Ocean as the Indian Ocean. Both the US and China should note this together with the fact that now India is no more a sleeping giant. Even for the Indo Pacific, it is India which is needed and courted by USA, Japan and Australia.
India has already set up a tri-Services command in Andaman and Nicobar Islands and has begun expanding it to keep a watch on all the activities in the Indian Ocean. The next step will be raising a full fledged Naval fleet also for its Southern Naval Command which presently just looks after training.
China has still a long way to go before it can dream of sending a naval Flotilla led by an aircraft carrier in to the Indian Ocean region and pose a challenge to the Indian Navy. Then also it will stand no chance.
Presently the US has Diego Garcia, a much bigger military facility than China can think of, and it maintains bases in Afghanistan, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait, not to mention those in Japan and South Korea. However in time to come India itself will have several big bases matching and even superior to the Americans.
Though China is following a pattern everywhere with commercial loans with a repayment schedule which if not met then China has to be paid in certain privileges in return. However it is highly mistaken that those privileges will translate into military bases or berthing rights to Naval ships during even perceived tensions with India. No country in SAARC or BIMSTEC will become dependent monetarily or politically indebted to China or for that matter to any external power. India will always ensure to this. Even the USA could not fulfill its dream of having a Naval base in Trincomallee.
In fact with Indian Naval presence in the foreseeable future in Camranh bay of Vietnam, Sabang Port in Indonesia and in the Fiji Islands, it will be the turn of China to feel uneasy. Though just like the days of Chola Empire, China can peacefully co exist and trade with not only South East Asia, Australia, South Asia but also rest of Asia. India will have no objections. However India will assert its role as a world superpower, above all in the Indian Ocean, all including China will have to accept it.
Narendra Modi has initiated the SAGAR, that stands for ‘Security And Growth for All in the Region’ and includes helping IOR countries with infrastructure projects as well as to combating piracy, smuggling and illegal fishing. This will promote closer economic cooperation between India and its neighbours in the Indian Ocean.
