By Colonel Awadhesh Kumar, Veteran Special Forces
Recently there was some loud thinking made in the Global Times of China, that the Indians think that all the actions undertaken by the Maldives President is at the behest of China. Global Times clarified that it was wrong on the part of Indian officials to think that the various moves by the island nation came at the behest of China, which does not interfere in any country’s internal affairs.
Recently the Maldives asked India to take back its two Dhruv helicopters which had been gifted to the Island nation and personnel deployed there. Last week, the Maldivian ambassador told a media outlet that his country has asked India to take back military helicopters and personnel posted there following the expiry of a pact in June.
The Chinese media said that this move only reflects the country’s increasing desire to rid itself of the excessive Indian influence. China, which opened its embassy in the Maldives in 2011, is involved in building big infrastructure projects in the country, which is of immense commercial significance in the Indian Ocean.
After laying claims on Natuna Sea located South of Chinese Coast and building infrastructure in the contested waters, China has increasingly been sending its merchant ships and odd naval ships to the India Ocean, raising eye brows of many countries.
Now the Chinese must know that India has had considerable influence in the Maldives, an archipelago which sits near the world’s busiest shipping lane in the Indian Ocean. For New Delhi this South Asian island nation is its backyard and within its core sphere of concern. Though India has no desire to tighten its grip on the capital city of Male and exclude other countries’ from making commercial investments of any kind, there is an invisible red line which no can be permitted to cross. Maldives is like a Protectorate, to be defended by India at all costs.
Presently ties between India and Maldives have come under strain under the government of Abdulla Yameen who is said to be pro-China and who has been flouting all the laid down norms of democracy and decency. India can just walk in and within hours Yameen will be in an Indian jail …..in fact previous Presidents of Maldives, currently in exile have been requesting the Indian Government for such a step.
However, India as a true democracy, respects the existence of Maldives as an independent sovereign country. India expects the island republic to rid itself of a despot like Yameen through its own internal democratic process. Indian will always be there to maximize the interests of the people of Maldives and will take surgical action only if there is total internal system failure or any external attempt made by any power to seek control of Maldives. Apart from the two conditions mentioned above, Maldives is free to have diplomatic ties with all major powers including China. Also any country including China can make any amount of investments in Maldives. It will be welcomed by both India and SAARC as a whole.
As usual, Global Times cannot desist from blowing hot and blowing cold or vice versa. So after denying its interference in Maldives affairs, the article immediately stated that “ the Maldives doesn’t want to become a certain country’s sphere of influence or take sides between major powers, nor other South Asian and Southeast Asian smaller nations. China opposes a spheres-of-influence order of the kind that dominated the Cold War. Any attempt to seek or sustain a sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific region, such as India’s desire to strengthen its control over the Maldives or the US Indo-Pacific strategy, is doomed to fail, as it runs counter to the development demands of countries in the region.”
Global Times also could not help its ranting on the quadrilateral exercise concluded recently as it us unsettling Beijing with respect to the Sea located South of Chinese Coast that is Natuna Sea. So it mentioned that the Maldives move also sends a signal to the Quad bloc — consisting of India, Australia, the US and Japan — in the Indo-Pacific that plans to “contain” China. The request for the withdrawal of the helicopters and personnel is an embodiment of such a desire and sends an important message to all major powers in the Indo-Pacific region.
As the Maldives crisis a few months back had shown, that the Chinese naval Flotilla headed towards Male, after crossing Lombak turned tail right at the Sunda straight itself, when it was still 3750 km from Male. Not only in the foreseeable future but even in the distant future, no matter what naval force level is deployed by China within the Vicinity of Maldives or even within the Indian Ocean, that force level will be of no match to even Western Naval Command of India, what to talk of the rest of the Indian Navy and the IAF. In fact any naval flotilla which reaches Male after travelling nearly 4900km and around 9 days at sea, from any of the Chinese base, will be out of fuel within a day or two and thereafter it will be just Turkey shoot for the IN and IAF already in wait.
China can keep building commercial infrastructures in Maldives but any attempt at any kind if militarization will lead to “ Cuban crisis “ situation where IN and IAF will have no other option left but to just erase every structure.
