Future Wars, World Peace And India
By
Colonel Krityanand Das
An American Admiral who had been a NATO Force commander has written a book titled 2034.
It is about how Chinese subterfuge in Western Pacific which lead to an all out war between America and China. Both countries nuked each other and become irrelevant, both politically and economically. In same book the Russians try their hands in Ukraine and Iran taking advantage of the Sino – American showdown. Russians retreat before any fatal damage could disturb their existence if not destroy them.
India initiates a very determined balancing action bordering on punitive but remains away from harms way.
However now that it all started in 2020 itself some fourteen years earlier.
A Chinese initiated pandemic followed by massive deployment of troops in Eastern Ladakh against India. Most likely the Chinese had imagined to achieve a Blitzkrieg like the Germans achieved in initial phase of WW-ll.
Though the Indian response gave them over 176 body bags to carry home. And the Chinese are yet to tell the truth to their 1.4 billion people who are kept in darkness even in this age of information! Following the above misadventure the Russians have started full-fledged war in Ukraine in early 2022.
Though they had annexed Crimea long time back only.
So the predicted war has a disturbed sequence as of now. But the war has started any way!
A Chinese general has also written of a war lurking around, all initiated by the western forces. Similarly both American and English intelligence chiefs have talked of war lurking around the corner.
Though Americans have history of waging wars even when they haven’t been distributed. They did it in Korea, Vietnam, Kuwait and Afghanistan and many times in Latin America. Toppled many governments that did not follow their dictat.
How ever they have made a shameful retreat from Afghanistan in recent past. May be they will avoid putting their boots on ground in any war for quite some time, until they are poked hard in their home land like one in 9/11.
Xi pushed Putin into Ukraine to see how it works out for their likely misadventures in Taiwan. And the way things have move there for the Russians, Xi will not like that to repeat in Taiwan against them. Xi is interested in getting hold of Taiwanese Chip industry and its financial resources like the way it got in Hongkong once the 99 years lease expired with the British.
But a war is likely to destroy those built up assets there. So war is likely to be the last option for the pragmatic Chinese Communist Party bosses. It is believed that Xi had suggested Obama to divide the world along the International Date Line for their sphere of influences and then rule the world with out interference from each other.
This suggestion alerted the Americans and after that Obama started talking loud about Asian Pivot. This has given impetuous to many new bodies like Quad, AUKUS and I2U2. Some more may evolve to contain China before it becomes too late and the Frankenstein Monster created by Nixon-Kissinger becomes too big to be contained.
Both China and the United States are most likely to adopt the most cautious approach in Indo – Pacific to avoid a direct conflict. As both know the consequence of such a clash. They will like some one else to clash with their opponent instead of they themselves. Unlike in the eastern Europe between Russia and Ukraine as now. And then try to wear out the other in a long war of attrition.
India, Japan, Vietnam and Indonesia should take note and not fall into any trap. Both these power will like to use these countries to get into brawl with their opponent.
Only a mishap, mistake, miscalculation or mischief on high sea may lead to a situation from where there won’t be any scope for an easy retreat. Both side need to be careful, now that differences have reached deployment stage around Taiwan and South China Sea after the visit. As clash will lead to mutual annihilation and both sides will like to avoid it. But if that fails then both rogues states will bomb the other to total irrelevance. Though bizarre but the way both are behaving in such irresponsible way and treating neighbors and other smaller nations with such disdain that it may be a good riddance if they destroy each other. As the old Chinese teaching goes” it is auspicious when the barbarians fight”!
Certainly it will be an auspicious occasion for the rest of the world.
Even if China invades Taiwan, it is most likely that Americans will not put their boots on the ground. They may supply arms and ammunition and will try to create something like Ukraine or Afghanistan there. Or may be retreat as in Afghanistan and shrink in to its two continental western hemisphere a la Monroe Doctrine’s geographical confines.
In such scenario China will go after India log stock and barrel! Not only will China increase deployment on the Himalayan borders and create disturbances and nibbling around, it will ignite all the fault lines in India of religious, caste, regional, linguistic, right, left and centre. Incite it’s entire neighborhood and increase its presence to reduce India to irrelevance.
Border tension with India is just small symptom of the bigger Chinese malice. China treats India as its rival. Not only political and commercial but civilizationally and culturally. Its literati elites in past and the communist elites in present cannot digest Indian influence in China in form of religious practices, cultural influences on its art and literature over thousands years, not only in China but in its entire neighborhood, in Japan and Korea and entire South East Asia.
Many monarchs on jealous filled advice of their mandarins destroyed monasteries, confiscated their properties and forced monks and nuns to turn householder after being forced in to marriages. Similar acts were repeated in China Occupied Tibet(COT) under Hu Jintao and now the same inhumane actions are being tried out in China Occupied Eastern Turkistan (COET) and then it will be in China Occupied South Mongolia (COSM).
Unfortunately China has been a super state in like and in line with that of the Nazi Germany or the Fascist Italy or like the Stalinist Soveit Union in past, present and will remain so in future as well. Its obstacle less frontiers with mad nomads lurking around has forced they way that it has shaped itself over millenniums.
It is doubtful if China has ever been a Civilizational State at all in its true sense of the term.
Other than bales of silk it has hardly contributed to any thing else to the world besides few tinkering like wheelbarrow! It’s energy was spent on maintaining its hold in the sixteen provinces of China Proper. It’s present size is a gift from its Mongol and Manchu conquerors.
Not even a dress that the Chinese male or female even in China prefer to wear. Not even their language is understood across their own country despite having a common writing system (character)! What to talk of across the world! During Japanese occupation of Pacific Islands in WW-ll, the interpreters that the Japanese had brought along with them from Taiwan could hardly communicate with the Chinese diaspora there, of Fujian/ Hakka decent and ultimately they switched over to English. There isn’t a dance form or music of Chinese origin known or preferred outside China. Nobody knows of any Chinese philosophy all that exist is ” dos and don’t ” for officials of obedience and tax payments and collections. There isn’t an Chinese epic that we know of like those of India or Greece or Mesopotamia. Some so called classics developed on borrowed Indian themes and characters. There isn’t a religion that even has a pan Sinic appeal. Of philosophers less talk is better. Most of them are supper scribes with very narrow approach of a royal court. There was one Mozi,who spoke of universal approach, and was side-lined as it didn’t suit the official supper scribe’s restricted dealings of human problems.
Buddhism that brought unity and enriched China culturally is at receiving end of present dispensation. Many of the statues of Buddha has been broken in recent times. Its not that Buddhism has faced adversity now, it has faced many times at hand of Literati elite and errant monarchs. Their anti Indian Civilizational Attitude is such that when Ravindra Nath Tagore received the Nobel Prize, being first Asian, many Asian countries honoured him and celebrated the occasion by asking him to speak in their universities. Even Chinese did, but many sections of so called Chinese intelligentsia opposed it and they were so jealous of an Indian’s achievement that they wanted to physically assault him during the visit, with great difficulty the organizers saved him from physical harm.
China has never had any intellectual but intellectual property right thieves have always had cunning scribes and heinous war lords and it is ruled by such lot even today and therefore it has so such problems within and without.
It’s only Chinese cousin that enjoys world wide appreciation. Food has always been a nightmare for the Chinese state and hard to get for an average household. Food riots are feared most in China. It leads to layen, the chaos that brings upheaval in Chinese system. May be they put their heart and soul in making everything thing eatable. That is why China is presently hoarding some seventy percent of food grains of the world! Hunger has haunted China as nothing else in its entire existence. May be for the first time average Chinese may be eating cereal in all their meals and not compensating it with insects!
Now that American seems to have some strength in its spine and has called off the Chinese bluff and let brave lady Pelosi land at Taipei. It is a good stand. Retreat from Afghanistan, a weak response to Russian invasion in Ukraine had made America look like not a dependable ally or partner. It’s this attitude that made China bold and it went on bullying the entire neighbourhood and Indo – Pacific. It looked as if America is in general retreat from the affairs of the old world into its own cocoon.
Let us see how long it holds its spine straight and how China reacts to its latest humiliations!
Its too early for any conclusion.
But it will certainly rejuvenate entire Indo-Pacific and containment of China will get a new lease of life.
India needs to keep itself away from a direct conflict. Guard it’s borders in the Himalayas, make its presence in Indian Ocean visible and effective. Strengthen Subcontinental unity and move closure to both ASEAN and the Middle East. See that all new groups of nations that have come into existence in response to Chinese expansionist tendency achieve economic strength and military might to ward off any Chinese misadventure.
India’s geographical location, size, population, economic strength and military mighty will be most needed to contain China and for maintaining world peace and civised order and provide benign effect on the groupings.
Let hope the bull in China Shop is at last caught and castrated in time before it moves on a wild rampage!
