IAF will have 54 Squadrons by 2040
Indian Air Force is presently having a fighter fleet with low squadron numbers of just 31 squadrons. Nearly half the fleet, though fully capable are more than 20 years old. However now the serviceability rate is much higher and the pace of up gradation by HAL is moving with speed.
With current planning and the works in pipeline, the Indian Air Force (IAF) is certainly going to be a 54 squadron AirForce by 2040. After the 1962 fiasco, a deep study recommended that IAF be authorized a fighter fleet of 45 squadrons. The present two front war scenario and the need to secure the Indian Ocean, dictates that IAF be provided with 54 squadrons. It will enable holding the adversaries at bay on both fronts and simultaneously go on full offensive on one front. For full offensive on both the fronts, IAF will require 63 Squadrons.
The present Squadron strength is as under
15 x SU30 MKI squadrons
2 x Mirage 2000 Squadrons
2 x MiG 29 Squadrons
6 x Jaguar Squadrons
2 x Rafale Squadron
2 x Tejas Squadron
2 x MiG21 Bison Squadron
There is going to be likely induction of 1x Mirage 2000 Squadron and 1x MiG 29 squadron( second hand). The planned indigenous 8× TEJAS MMK-1A squadrons (and retirement of 2x Bison squadrons ) the strength will go up to 39 Squadrons. By this time Tejas Mk2 should be in full production for both IAF and for export with GE engines / Kaveri engines. This will add around 14x Squadrons (upto 44 aircraft per year production rate ) by 2040. Though Jaguars, Mirages and MiG29s will have retired. The Squadron strength will be 43 Squadrons.
However by 2040 we should be having 7x Squadrons of Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), and 4x Squadrons of additional Rafales. Raising the total strength to 54 fighter squadrons.
The decline in active combat squadrons is primarily due to the retirement of older aircraft, such as the MiG-21, and the lack of available replacements. Additionally, the IAF plans to retire the MiG-29s and Jaguar squadrons by 2035 as these aircraft reach the end of their service life.
It is important to note that the Govt is committed to increasing the squadron numbers. The goal of 54 squadrons may appear difficult at the moment due to many motivated articles on HAL and timely supply of GE engines.
The IAF has already inducted two squadrons of TEJAS MK-1 and has 8x squadrons of TEJAS MK-1A are on order. There are a few supply chain hiccups which are inevitable in any new production line. However it is in the interest of GE to smoothen out things at the earliest in case it wants future collaborations. Since the Kaveri engine is coming sooner than later. They need to cooperate now or just forget about it later on, we will not need them.
In fact once the AMCA goes into production, Indians will start hearing 0f HMCA whose first protype shoulder definitely flying well before 2040.
