The political future of South Korea after the Martial Law

South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol’s stunning martial law declaration lasted just hours, but experts say it raised serious questions about his ability to govern for the remaining 2 1/2 years of his term and whether he will abide by democratic principles.

The opposition-controlled parliament overturned the edict, and his rivals on Wednesday took steps to impeach him. One analyst called his action “political suicide.

“Yoon’s political fate may depend on whether a large number of people in coming days take to the streets to push for his ouster.

Here’s a look at the political firestorm caused by the martial law declaration, the first of its kind in more than 40 years.

Why did Yoon impose martial law?Yoon’s declaration of emergency martial law on Tuesday night was accompanied by a pledge to eliminate “shameless North Korea followers and anti-state forces at a single stroke.”

He vowed to protect the country from “falling into the depths of national ruin.” Yoon, a conservative, cited repeated attempts by his liberal rivals in control of parliament to impeach his top officials and curtail key parts of his budget bill for next year.

South Korea’s constitution allows a president to impose military rule during “wartime, war-like situations or other comparable national emergency states.” But a president can’t maintain martial law if parliament opposes it with a majority vote.

That’s what happened Wednesday. And it’s why Yoon’s move has baffled many experts.

Yoon’s political fighting with the main opposition Democratic Party is not seen as an emergency requiring military intervention. Experts question why Yoon pushed ahead with the declaration even though the parliament would certainly vote it down.

“Conservatives and even moderates would agree with Yoon’s criticism and his assessment of progressive lawmakers, but his choice of methods in the 21st century is being seen as the wrong move, miscalculation, and even political suicide,” said Duyeon Kim, a senior analyst at the Center for a New American Security in Washington.

Yoon’s decree resulted in the military deploying troops with assault rifles and police officers to the National Assembly to block its entrance.

Even so, 190 of the parliament’s 300 members managed to enter and later vote down Yoon’s martial law edict early Wednesday. Yoon then lifted martial law without any resistance.

The sequence of events suggests that his declaration wasn’t carefully or thoroughly planned.

“His advisers should have tried to dissuade him not to do it, and they likely did so. But I think that didn’t work, and Yoon just pressed ahead with his plan,” said Hong Sung Gul, a public administration professor at Seoul’s Kookmin University.

“That shows he isn’t capable of governing this country.”

What political fate awaits Yoon?

The Democratic Party, which has a majority in parliament, demanded Wednesday that Yoon resign.

Together with small opposition parties, it submitted a joint motion on Yoon’s impeachment and said they aim for a floor vote as early as Friday.

Yoon didn’t comment on the impeachment bid, but he put off his official schedule Wednesday morning.

He hasn’t made public appearances since earlier Wednesday, when he announced he was lifting martial law.

The opposition parties together hold 192 seats, eight short of the two-thirds needed to impeach Yoon. But Yoon could face trouble from his own camp as 18 legislators from the ruling People Power Party voted to reject his martial law decree.

PPP leader Han Dong-hun called his declaration “unconstitutional.””Both his own ruling party and the opposition party want to hold him accountable.

PFor the first time, in a highly polarized country, both sides of the aisle agree that Yoon’s choice in declaring martial law was the wrong move,” Duyeon Kim, the analyst, said.

“It sounds like his own party is opposed to impeachment but still deliberating whether to ask Yoon to leave the party.”

South Korean conservatives harbor traumatic memories of the 2016 impeachment of then-President Park Geun-hye, followed by her ouster and arrest the following year.

Yoon’s martial law declaration may have killed his chances of fully completing his term through May 2027, said Park Sung-min, head of Seoul-based MIN Consulting, a political consulting firm.

His early exit would brighten the presidential prospects for Democratic Party chief Lee Jae-myung, who faces corruption and other court trials that have threatened to derail his career.

Surveys show Lee, who narrowly lost the 2022 election to Yoon, is the favorite to become the next president.

If Yoon is impeached, the Constitutional Court would rule on whether to remove him from office.

How does the martial law decree affect foreign policy and the economy?

The South Korean developments may be troubling for Washington and Tokyo as they try to expand their three-way security cooperation.

“In these crucial times, especially with Donald Trump returning to office and the variety of difficult geopolitical challenges facing the region at the moment, political instability in South Korea is something that neither the United States nor Japan would want,” said Park Won Gon, a professor at Seoul’s Ewha Womans University in Seoul.

The White House said the U.S. was “seriously concerned” by the events in Seoul. A spokesperson for the National Security Council said President Joe Biden’s administration was not notified in advance of the martial law announcement.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that Tokyo is watching the development with “exceptional and serious interest.”North Korea hasn’t commented. Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University, said that North Korea will probably take a wait-and-see approach.

The political instability unleashed by Yoon could also make it more difficult for his government to nurse a decaying economy.

South Korea’s currency, the won, dipped to a two-year low against the U.S. dollar but had recovered by early Wednesday, while the benchmark Kospi stock index was trading 1.8% lower.”

There’s a growing sentiment that the president himself has become the greatest risk to the Republic of Korea and that things cannot continue as they are,” Park said.