Lately there have been many signs of improvement in India and China’s economic relations. Recently China agreed to import Indian rice, a move that is going to reduce India’s widening trade deficit with China.
Similar other actions between China and India indicates growing convergence of interests tilting slowly towards a strategic shift in relationship for a brighter future.
Initially In 2017 India was quite vociferous in its criticism of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) because of the road passing through POK.
Now New Delhi is refraining from any public criticisms of the issue because Chinese have realized the main issue of infringement of Sovereignty. At the Shangri-La Dialogue PM Modi had an accommodative tenor, even when he referred to expansionism in a subtle manner.
New Delhi now clearly says that though it is charting its own balancing path in the Indo-Pacific through deepening engagements with Japan and the United States, the actions in no way will be directed towards escalating tensions with Beijing.
The Chinese Defence Minister Lieutenant General Wei Fengh made his first visit to India in August 2018, precisely a year after both sides decided to withdraw their forces following the two-month standoff at the Doklam.
Both countries are now trying to install a mechanism for greater confidence building measures to avoid Doklam-like situations from resurfacing.
Without signing any formal agreement Hindi Chini have agreed to reduce troop confrontations, increase border personnel meeting points and operationalise a hotline between senior military officials. A revamp of the 2006 memorandum of understanding on defence cooperation seems to be the target.
General Wei’s visit closely coincided with Japanese Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera, visit to New Delhi for the India-Japan Annual Defence Ministerial Dialogue.
According to the joint statement, Onodera and Nirrnali Sitharaman ‘had a frank exchange of views on the current security situation in the Indo-Pacific region, including developments in the Korean Peninsula’ and expressed interest in ‘expanding cooperation in the maritime security domain’.
Thus near simultaneous talks with General Wei at such a time was can be interpreted as a signal by India that its stance on the Indo-Pacific was not exclusionary of or threatening to China.
Though Peace and Tranquillity agreement was signed in 1993 between China and India, it is only now that the relationship aims to take the post-Wuhan consensus beyond just managing border disputes.
India is now attempting to shape its own free foreign policy devoid of peer pressure, within the contours of the Wuhan spirit. China to us hedging to avoid any pressure build-up in the Indo-Pacific.
Before the Wuhan consensus, every violation of boundary, actual or perceived was immediately followed by blame-games and widespread media coverage. Such developments are now practically absent.
Though through out the Indo-Pacific region, Australia, New Zealand and Malaysia have openly criticised China’s expansionist designs.
Even the BRI’s grandiose plans and the charm of Chinese credit and infrastructure projects have not been able to overshadow the threats of the BRI.
This year, the Australian government launched a review of its intelligence agencies after allegations of Chinese espionage came to light.
Australia then banned Chinese firms ZTE and Huawei from providing Australia’s 5G network. Canberra’s fears were compounded by unconfirmed reports that China planned to build a military base in Vanuatu.
Similar concerns were voiced by New Zealand. For the first time, New Zealand formally acknowledged the multidimensionality of Chinese threats that range from China’s military build-up in the South China Sea to its debt-driven influence on Pacific island nations. Malaysia shelved three Chinese projects that were worth US$22 billion amid debt concerns.
However both India and China have realized that foreign policy can focus on cooperation rather than contentious issues even if they exist. With both nations already sharing a disputed border, both need to avoid dispute on the high seas and the wider Indo-Pacific region.
China, too is making efforts to minimise frictions that is affecting its relations with Indo-Pacific nations and raising obstacles to BRI. So both the countries are realizing the need to act like BHAI BHAI but then won’t it sideline non Asians in the region?
