An illusive concept let loose on the World?

By Colonel Satish Singh Lalotra

‘Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevtibale.-John F Kennedy.

Since the time human being started walking on this earth, his existence has been dictated by the tenets of the theory espoused by the great scientist Charles Darwin-‘Survival of the fittest” which held true at the time of its inception , now and would hold true even in the future for times to come. The theory holds in its various folds the incessant strife that besets the human race which constantly is jockeying for either power, pelf or simple and plain existence-in plain simple words ‘Survival of the fittest. The legacy of internecine conflicts is as old as the history of human existence. The only difference being , that the conflicts of the yore were more characterized by localized power jockeying with limited spheres of destruction owing basically to a very rudimentary set of weapons and their reach ; unlike of today’s weapons of mass destruction ( WMD). A cursory look around the data available from SIPRI (Stockholm international peace research institute), an international institute based in Stockholm that specializes in data analysis, and recommendations for armed conflict, military expenditure and arms trade as well as disarmament and arms control have all the ingredients of surprising facts of armed conflicts that shook the world in the last one century. As per SIPRI, conflicts took place in every year of the 20 th century & the world was free from the violence caused by the wars for only short periods of time. The institute by its rough & conservative estimates counts about 187 million people dead as a result of wars from 1900 to the present times. The major conflicts of the 20 th century hide within themselves the seeds of wars for the 21 st century too, since many of the issues have not seen the closure of the so called ‘Casus Belli and due to these vexed issues wars of the ilk be it the First WW or 2 WW, Russian civil war, Third Afghan war right till the Israeli- Hamas conflict continue to draw human blood shed unabated albeit in different formats resulting into even balkanization of nation- states viz breaking up of Yugoslavia and Soviet union.
The fact that conflicts were ruling the roost till about a century back and even today are considered the last instrument of state diplomacy when all else has failed have the power within themselves to question the very locus standi of the first world peace bodies -‘The league of nations’ (making it fall like a house of cards after the end of WW I) and now the UN ; proves that to have an enduring era of peace regular working out of peace formulas have to be undertaken by the comity of nations. The successor of ‘The league of nations’, the UNO though has been able to maintain a veneer of peace across the globe, this fragility of peace has been brought to us in a very frightening manner lately by way of the current and ongoing Russo-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflagration which have the seeds of consuming its neighbouring countries as well; and no signs of its abatement despite a plethora of UN resolutions condemning the both. Nonetheless , the world peace body UN decided to take the concept of ‘International day of peace’ also officially known as ‘World peace day’ to be celebrated on 21 st September every year since 1981 in order to instill the semantics of the day the world over in the hope that this may rub off on the member countries for posterity. This august day was first established in 1981 and first observed in September 1982 by many nations, politico- military groups, and a wide cross section of the societies cutting across affiliations of all kinds.
To inaugurate the day, the UN peace bell is rung at UN Headquarters (New York) , which is a special bell cast from coins donated by people from all continents except Africa , and was a gift from the UN association of Japan as ‘a reminder of the human cost of war’ with very apt inscriptions on its side-‘ Long live absolute world peace’. What better country than Japan as a contributor which had the singular distinction of bearing the cross let loose by the US on its twin cities of Hiroshima & Nagasaki’ during the 2WW? The UNGA (United Nations General assembly) declared in a resolution sponsored by the UK & Costa Rica, the ‘International day of peace’ to be devoted to commemorating the ideals of peace in 1981. The date chosen for the same was that of regular opening of annual session of the UNGA-the third Tuesday of September, which was changed further in 2001 to the current annual celebration on 21 September each year. In 2001 the opening day of the General assembly was scheduled for 11 September and Secretary General Kofi Anan drafted a message recognizing the observance of ‘international peace day’. The September 11 attacks, often referred to as 9/11, were perpetrated on that same day when a series of 4 coordinated attacks by the Islamic terrorists Al -Qaeda against the US occurred just few blocks away from the UN on the morning of Tuesday , September 11 ,2001. That year the day was changed from the third Tuesday to specifically the 21 st of September 2002.
Though this august world body has been relentlessly ringing the peace bell ever since the inception of ‘International peace day’ it would do well for us to have a quick look over the latest defence spending of the big players disguising themselves as ‘World policemen’. The emerging big power China for example has earmarked a whopping $ 700 billion for its defence budget that has started ringing danger bells across the Atlantic in the US as also elsewhere. China being an autocratic and closed society, these figures are only a matter of conjecture before they too undergo a change when backed up by actual figures which are very hard to come by. China’s military budget is released through state media each year which is a state controlled body, unlike India’s wherein the defence spending is presented to the elected body and debated plus telecast live. As for the US its defence spending could be as high as $ 1.3 trillion. Though China is not a typical ‘Global policeman’ as has been the US for more than half a century who has military prowess to cover the entire geographical area of the world , but then Chinese hegemony restricted to its neighbouring coutries in order to consolidate its power base has ominous consequences for the world pace. China’s off and on sabre rattling in the SCS ( South China sea), threat of annexation of Taiwan, intransigence across the Himalayas, the Philippines, salami slicing in Bhutan, coercive diplomacy in Nepal, broadening its claim of land across the Pamir mountains in Tajikistan, increasing offensive forays into the strait of Malacca has the potential of rattling the entire Asian continent with regional conflicts that could easily scale up to a worldwide conflagration with jumping in of more world players into the arena.
Just to give the readers of this article an idea of the military spending across the world. Total global military expenditure reached an all-time high of $ 2443 billion in 2023, an increase of 6.8% in real terms from 2022. This was the steepest year on year increase since 2009. The 10 largest spenders in 2023 were led by the US, China & Russia, all of which increased their military spending. This was the 9 th consecutive year of global military spending rising. Also it was the first time since 2009 that military expenditure went up in all five geographical regions. Particularly large increases were seen in Europe, Asia and Oceania and West Asia. Clearly, peace and security are deteriorating. As the states prioritize military expenditure and strength, there is a risk of a spiral effect in each neighbourhood as has been mentioned by me above. Russia’s military expenditure as per the SIPRI (Stockholm international peace research institute) increased by 24% to an estimated $ 109 billion in 2023, marking a 57 % rise since 2014 the year that Russia annexed Crimea. The Russian military expenditure in 2023 was 16% of total government spending and 5.9% of GDP. Ukraine was the 8 th largest military spender in 2023. Yearly spending surged 51 % to reach $ 64.8 billion, representing 58% of total governmental annual spending. Similar is the case of NATO whose military spending has skyrocketed spearheaded by the US in the recent times. As for the Chinese, its spending on military has already started having the typical ‘Domino effect’ on its neighbours. Japan’s 2023 defence budget was $50.2 billion, an 11 % increase over 2022. Japan shed its ‘Pacifist approach’ last year and is relooking at the 1947 enacted article 9 (nine) of their constitution that forbids offensive weapons. Taiwan plans to increase its defence budget further by bringing it up to 2 % of its GDP by 2027. With Bangladesh too now falling prey to its internal dynamics and an overwhelming sense of anarchy prevailing in that country as also Myanmar’s military Junta fanning an overall instability in the region, the eastern corridor of India suddenly has become inimical to our regional aspirations. It is here that the world body of UN should put its head together and come out with tangibles to roll back this mentality as well as stop the ‘steamrolling’ of weaker nations by the so called ‘Global policemen’ by its well-meaning celebration of ‘International peace day’. As the swashbuckling late US president John F Kennedy said-quote” Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable’. It should not so happen that the world body (UN) finds its job usurped by the violent revolutions to set the global peace initiative in the right direction.
(The writer is a retired army officer)