Arakan Army gains control in Rakhine State of Myanmar
The conflict in Myanmar has reached a critical juncture, as the military junta, which seized power in a 2021 coup, appears to be on the verge of losing control over Rakhine State. This western-most state, bordering Bangladesh, is witnessing a significant shift in power, with the Arakan Army (AA) making substantial gains that could result in the establishment of the largest ethnic-controlled area since the coup.
The Arakan Army, formed in the borderlands of China, has emerged as a formidable force in Myanmar’s ongoing civil conflict. Initially established in 2009 with the goal of securing greater autonomy for the ethnic Rakhine population, the group has transformed into a well-organized and disciplined military force. Since November of last year, the AA has made rapid advances across Rakhine State, pushing back the Myanmar military, also known as the Tatmadaw, and carving out a significant area of control.
According to a report released by the International Crisis Group on August 26, 2024, the Arakan Army is on the brink of creating a “proto-state” in Rakhine, home to over a million people. The AA’s advances are not just limited to territorial gains; they represent a strategic victory that has rallied other ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy fighters in Myanmar to dislodge the military regime led by coup leader-turned-President Min Aung Hlaing.
The Tatmadaw’s response to the Arakan Army’s advances has been brutal and indiscriminate. The military has resorted to heavy-handed tactics, including airstrikes, artillery bombardments, and blockades, in an attempt to quell the AA’s momentum. These tactics, however, have only exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in Rakhine State, causing widespread displacement and economic distress among the civilian population.
Despite these efforts, the Tatmadaw has been unable to stem the tide of the AA’s advances. Reports indicate that the military has lost control over most of the nation’s townships, a development that has led to the extension of emergency rule in Myanmar. The security situation in the country is deteriorating rapidly, with violence and instability spreading across various regions.
The UNDP reported in April 2024 that 76 percent of Myanmar’s population now lives below or perilously close to a subsistence existence, underscoring the dire economic situation. The Tatmadaw’s inability to restore order and provide for the basic needs of the population has further eroded its legitimacy and control, paving the way for groups like the Arakan Army to gain influence.
The Arakan Army’s rise in Rakhine State has significant implications for the region’s strategic and economic landscape. One of the AA’s key targets is Sittwe, the state capital, and the island township of Kyaukphyu, which hosts critical Chinese infrastructure projects. China has long been invested in the development of a deep-sea port, a special economic zone, and a high-speed railway in Kyaukphyu, which are integral to Beijing’s broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Southeast Asia.
The AA’s control over these areas could pose a challenge to China’s economic and strategic interests in the region. While the Arakan Army has not directly threatened Chinese projects, the instability and potential for conflict in Rakhine State could disrupt these investments. China, which has maintained a delicate balancing act in its relations with the Tatmadaw and various ethnic armed groups, may find itself navigating a more complex and volatile situation.
Thomas Kean, a senior consultant on Myanmar and Bangladesh for the International Crisis Group, highlighted the challenges that the Arakan Army could face in leveraging the economic resources of Rakhine after the junta’s potential expulsion. “The rise of the Arakan Army in western Myanmar is certainly a challenge for China, primarily because of Beijing’s economic and strategic interests in the region,” Kean noted. “China wants to ensure there is no disruption or damage to its investments.”
The AA’s ability to govern and manage the resources of Rakhine, particularly in the absence of established infrastructure and external support, remains a significant question. While the group has demonstrated its military prowess, translating battlefield victories into sustainable governance and economic development will be a formidable challenge.
Rakhine State is also home to Myanmar’s Rohingya population, a Muslim-minority group that has faced persecution and violence at the hands of the Tatmadaw. This month marks seven years since the start of military operations that drove approximately 1.2 million Rohingya across the border into Bangladesh, events that the United States later determined had amounted to “genocide and crimes against humanity.”
The situation for the remaining Rohingya in Rakhine State has continued to deteriorate. Violence against the Rohingya has persisted, with both the military and the Arakan Army implicated in serious human rights violations and abuses. According to the UN Human Rights Office, these violations include extra-judicial killings, some involving beheadings, abductions, and forced recruitment. The Rohingya community remains trapped between the warring factions, facing violence and displacement with little hope of respite.
Volker Turk, the United Nations human rights chief, expressed “grave alarm” last week about the sharply deteriorating situation in Rakhine State, where hundreds of civilians have reportedly been killed as they flee the fighting. The ongoing violence against the Rohingya underscores the deep-rooted ethnic and religious tensions that continue to plague Myanmar, even as the broader conflict between the Tatmadaw and ethnic armed groups intensifies.
The Arakan Army’s advances in Rakhine State represent a significant turning point in Myanmar’s post-coup conflict. As the military junta loses its grip on key territories, the prospect of a fragmented and war-torn Myanmar looms large. The AA’s potential establishment of a proto-state in Rakhine could serve as a model for other ethnic armed groups, further eroding the central government’s authority.
However, the path forward is fraught with challenges. The Arakan Army, while militarily successful, faces the daunting task of governing a region that has been ravaged by conflict and neglect. The group will need to navigate complex relations with neighbouring countries, particularly China and India and manage the expectations of the local population, including the Rohingyas.
As Myanmar’s conflict enters a new phase, the Indian and Chinese role in addressing the humanitarian crisis and supporting a peaceful resolution becomes ever more critical. The situation in Rakhine State, with its complex interplay of ethnic tensions, strategic interests, and human rights concerns, will be a key battleground in the struggle for Myanmar’s future.
