AUKUS an ineffective ‘NATO’ : Malaysian scholar
The newly formed Australia, United Kingdom, United States security pact (AUKUS) has triggered concern among the ASEAN countries as the deal will help Australia acquire technology to build nuclear submarines, which will upset the security balance in the region.
Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia and Indonesia, have recently expressed their concerns over AUKUS. Malaysia’s defense chief said on Wednesday that he will seek Beijing’s views on it. Though experts are still not clear how much impact will this acquisition of nuclear submarines and technology by Australia will have on the South East Asian Region.
US President Joe Biden has said that one of the justifications for US withdrawal from Afghanistan is to focus America’s resources to compete against China. Though the timing of the formation of AUKUS immediately after US’s withdrawal from Afghanistan is no coincidence. AUKUS is an America-led united front and an additional component of its Indo-Pacific Strategy to contain China, as ASEAN is the main theatre of US-China competition. It implies that India and Japan have refused to turn QUAD into a NATO like alliance. It is likely to cause destabilization of the regional peace and security of ASEAN and thus affecting the investment climate in the region.
China is Malaysia’s largest trading partner for 12 consecutive years. And Malaysia, being the second largest trading partner of China among ASEAN countries, naturally feels uneasy over the formation of AUKUS, especially at a time when the country needs to attract foreign investments, particularly from China, to recover the economy from COVID-19 pandemic.
The three countries in the AUKUS seek to contain China with in the Indo-Pacific region. However the very geographical distance of the three AUKUS members from ASEAN/China would render AUKUS an ineffective “NATO” against China.
Though this may affect neighboring countries in the region and they may be forced to take sides.
ASEAN nations have always preached maintaining Southeast Asia as a “zone of peace, freedom and neutrality” (ZOPFAN), free from interference by any outside powers. Maintaining ASEAN centrality vis-a-vis China-US rivalry is the consensus of ASEAN members.
No ASEAN country is likely to join a US-led “Asian NATO” in view of the close trade ties between China and ASEAN, unlike EU countries and Soviet Russia during the Cold War. ASEAN countries most probably will take cue from America’s recent chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan without due consultation with its allies. In the eyes of many, US is a self-centered superpower that cannot be trusted.
There are already different voices on AUKUS within ASEAN members. For example, Philippines said it supports AUKUS’s action in the region. This may cause division in the ASEAN.
Of the 10 ASEAN countries, Malaysia and Indonesia have voiced strong objection to AUKUS. Malaysian Foreign Minister will be visiting Beijing soon to seek China’s views on AUKUS while Indonesia has cancelled Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s visit as a sign of protest against AUKUS,
Even Singapore, Australia’s most reliable ally in the region, has expressed concern. AUKUS is unlikely to find other supporters among ASEAN nations as they feared AUKUS would exacerbate US-China rivalry in the region, provoke more aggressive acts by both countries in South China Sea.
Though AUKUS is overall unlikely to harm ASEAN unity as ASEAN countries will abide by the spirit of ZOPFAN and maintain its centrality in the big power rivalry.
As It is all ASEAN member states are signatories to the Treaty of Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ or Bangkok Treaty), which is committed to keep nuclear weapons out of the region.
The formation of AUKUS by Australia, UK and US is an obvious challenge to the spirit of SEANWFZ. Many have expressed the view that after acquiring nuclear-powered submarines, it is likely Australia will further seek to acquire nuclear weapons in the future. Malaysia has expressed its deep concern that AUKUS could potentially spark a nuclear arms race in the Indo-Pacific region.
Malaysian Defense Minister, Hishammuddin Hussein, said on Wednesday that “the focus now is to balance AUKUS with The Five Power Defense Arrangement, a bilateral defense relationships and multilateral agreements between Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, and the U.K.”
The Five Power Defense Arrangement was set up in 1971 against the backdrop of the Cold War, to prevent the possible domino effect of the Vietnam war. As only Singapore and Malaysia are ASEAN members in the FPDA, it is unlikely that FPDA can be used as a leverage for Southeast Asian countries to counter AUKUS.
However, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia jointly control the Straits of Malacca. The three countries may jointly leverage their control of the Straits of Malacca on AUKUS with regard to the their usage of this critical waterway.
