AUKUS Provides India And France A Unique Opportunity
By
Colonel Awadhesh Kumar
The US, the UK and Australia on Wednesday announced that they will form an enhanced trilateral security partnership called AUKUS. It seems that USA has not been able to prevail on India and Japan to become lackeys and turn the Quad into a military block.
So Australia, which had recently become the fourth and the weakest link of the Quadrilateral Initiative Dialogue in the Into Pacific, has been given some “special treatment” by Washington to join the US and its lackey UK to form a military bloc against China.
The formation of AUKUS, has already had a huge impact on France a very close Strategic friend of India. The impact has been so much that France in anger has even called back its ambassadors from both Australia and the USA.
On September 24, US President Joe Biden will host the Quad Leaders Summit at the White House. In that meeting it is likely that QUAD may turn into may be a mere consultative alliance. The establishment of AUKUS shows that India is a country which charts it own foreign policy and will not toe any One else’s line. Even Japan seems to be taking similar position independent of USA. Whereas lowly Australia has been attracted towards USA in quest of Security from a very aggressive China.
The US may try as hard as possible but it cannot turn Australia into a hub for its Indo-Pacific Strategy, with the Indian Ocean to its west and the Pacific Ocean to its east. The US has many military bases and allies in the Northern Hemisphere, but its global strategic alliance network in the Southern Hemisphere seems to be relatively weak. So as a next step it will ask Australia to provide it with military bases.
In case Australia agrees then unwittingly these bases will become targets for a future Chinese nuclear weapons. So there is surely going to be a massive protest in Australia against such American bases. New Zealand has already given clear warning against any future ingress of any Australian nuclear powered submarines into its territorial Waters.
AUKUS will support Australia in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines and enabling its patrol of nuclear-powered submarines in the Indo-Pacific region. This time, the US has taken advantage of AUKUS and the close US-UK alliance to further strengthen Australia’s political advantage in the US alliance network.
Though Australians are just becoming aware that in the present they have completely spoiled there relationship with France, which has a major presence and relationship in the Into Pacific. Also all the eight nuclear submarines will be available only after more than two decades and in that period, devoid of even a proper conventional submarine force, things will be precarious.
The US has been trying to rope in India, as only India has the population, the size and the military and economic capability to stop China in its track. This way USA also wanted to extend its Asia-Pacific strategy westward to the Indian Ocean. However, India has its own Act East policy and is working accordingly and cannot permit any one else to dictate terms.. So though Washington and New Delhi may have common interests, India cannot become a Camp follower but work on the basis of friendship and equality only.
As for Japan, its alliance with the US can be an advantage. However, Japan’s domestic political and legal conditions do not meet the US requirements. After the end of WWII, Japan adopted a non-nuclear weapon policy – a policy popularly articulated as the Three Non-Nuclear Principles of non-possession, non-production, and non-introduction of nuclear weapons.
As AUKUS will share core technology and intelligence, some analysts believe that the US may focus on helping Australia develop its military strength and make it a US “guard dog” in Asia.
By launching AUKUS, the US may have aimed at building a more solid and broad foundation for its Indo-Pacific Strategy. Probably AUKUS aimed to complement QUAD as Washington wants to rope in its allies from both the Eastern and Western hemispheres into the Indo-Pacific Strategy. However it has back fired as seen from the French actions. AUKUS’ negative impact on the Quad and the US itself will outweigh its positive impact.
Meanwhile both India and France has been provided with an opportunity to establish a much closer strategic ties that may have a real dominating presence in both the Indian Ocean Region and the Into Pacific. In case Japan too joins it then it will surely be the dominating block in the entire region.
