Australia need not spend billions to deter China, just millions will do
Australia is being goaded to consider at the minimum a Squadron of B 21 American bombers. So called experts say that a fleet of 12 of these bombers will help Australia keep the PLAAF, PLAN A and the PLA at bay.
However with all the paraphernalia’s this Squadron will be costing around 28 Billion USD and will be delivered not before 2032. Same will be the case with the six nuclear powered attack submarine costing more than 30 billion USD and delivery not before 2040.
A report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute clearly brings out the fact that mere distance from China, Taiwan, North Korea, hot spots of Asia, Ukraine etc cannot be a safety guarantee for Australia not getting invaded by a power like China. The strategic report points to the rising military power of China in the Asia Pacific region.
“The ‘worst case’ scenario for Australia’s military strategy has always been the prospect of an adversary establishing a presence in our near region from which it can target Australia or isolate us from our partners and allies,” the report says. Strike capabilities of China in the archipelago to the north or the Southwest Pacific, whether on ships and submarines or land-based missiles and aircraft, would be that worst case.
The report also says a squadron of B-21 Raider bombers could help plug a predicted capability gap in Australia’s defences as the nation’s current submarine fleet becomes obsolete.
Nearer home with economic and military rise of Indonesia, there may be some kind of conflict over various islands which are next to Indonesia rather than Australian mainland. Then there may be dispute over Exclusive Economic Zones too.
So defence analysts add that though the B21 are extremely expensive they have the ability to reach mainland China. This latest bomber which has entered the USAAF fleet after nearly after 30 years is supposed to have a “major advance for American deterrence” and would be the backbone of the US bomber fleet in the future, as per a person no less than the USA Defence Minister or the Secretary as they are designated.
The batwing-shaped aircraft is packed with advanced technology and is coated in advanced materials to make the bomber harder to detect. It looked “ very cool “ to the visiting Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles.
Well, since Australia has lots of money to spend on fancy things, they can just go ahead and place order for these fancy things. 12 bombers may have the ability to reach China mainland but there after achieve what ? Will they will be inflict same amount of damage which 24 of PLAAF H20 strategic bombers escorted by 48 of J 20 fighters will be able to do on reaching one of the Australian cities say Darwin, Cairns or may be even Brisbane ?
So instead of spending billions there is a better alternative and as effective. available by spending just a few millions. This alternative is to cement the increasing friendship with India more firmly. What Doklam, Maldives, Nakula, Galwan incidents had indicated and now Arunachal clashes on 9 Dec between PLA and Indian Army has firmly established that it is India which has the WILL and the capability to teach lessons to China, when required.
Australia should negotiate and get a Squadron of Akash2 air defence missiles for each of its cities where Chinese fighters are likely to reach. These cost just around INR 1000 crores per Squadron ie less than 200 million AUS $.
The Akash system provides accurate Supersonic firepower to take on enemy stealth fighters, bombers, helicopters, drones and even sub sonic cruise missiles. It is capable of tracking and tackling multiple aerial threats attacking from several directions simultaneously.
The large kill envelope of Akash can thus handle multiple multidimensional threats. The system is highly mobile with cross country mobility and multi terrain deployment from sub zero to desert temperature.
The above will take care of the air space defences. Next to deter the PLAN from approaching anywhere nearer than 800km, Australia should order for atleast six batteries of BRAHMOS which will be costing less than 50 million Aus $.
The range of this world’s fastest Supersonic Cruise Missile has the Chinese Navy in panic mode. Also no matter what many American and NATO experts say, various indigenous Indian systems on the BRAHMOS have made it a game changer.
Both the above systems will thus take care of air defence and the strike element and all for less than 300 million Aus $. For the ability to reach the Chinese mainland, leave it to the Americans.
Alternatively after further cementing of ties with India, Australia will suddenly find that the best insurance against China will be the large Indian diaspora….citizens of Indian origin, long term resident visa holders, students community and the large number of Indian tourists.
Also Australia should be fully aware of the fact that much before the first of the AUKUS induced nuclear powered submarine is commissioned into the Australian Navy, there will be nearly 12 Indian SSGNs patrolling the Indian Ocean/Indo Pacific and nearly as many SSBNs deployed quietly with submarine launched nuclear armed ballistic missiles with capability to hit any part of the world if need arises. Then there will be several dozen conventional submarines too to deter the PLAN from threatening any country in the region.
