Between India and China, Sri Lanka needs to fine tune its diplomatic power games
In April 2022 Sri Lanka had informed all its international creditors that the tiny island country would not be able to repay loans as scheduled. In simple language, Sri Lanka had become bankrupt. The situation is such that even after seventy-five years of independence, the Country still needs to import staple food, among other essentials, to feed its people.
Sri Lanka had to beg the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a facility to reschedule existing debt repayments, and help it out of the mess the political leaders had got this country into.
In the meantime, the country faced rolling 12-hour power cuts, faced shortages of food, medicines, fuel, LP gas and every necessity needed. It was in this background, India backed Sri Lanka’s application for a facility to reschedule debts from the IMF.
The external debt totalled INR 298000 Crores ($35.1 billion) at the end of September last year, China was the biggest bilateral creditor, followed by Japan and India. In total, Sri Lanka owed Chinese lenders INR 59000 Crores ( $7.4 billion), or nearly a fifth of our public external debt.
India next extended a INR 34000 Crores ($4bn) in emergency assistance credit line at the peak of the financial crisis last year to help Sri Lanka to import basic necessities.
The fact that people of Sri Lanka today have even limited amounts of food on their table today is largely because of the Indian line of credit. This line of credit has also been used to bring down urgently needed supplies of medicines, and purchase of vehicular fuel and LP gas. Within months, the rolling power cuts were reduced and today the CRISIS is a distant memory.
China the biggest creditor, on the other hand, cleverly offered a “ new loan” to repay the first loan. This was to ensure further tightening of the dreaded debt noose. However to please other international creditors and make Lanka’s application for an IMF facility possible, China, after lots of pressure and fearing India’s financial intervention, subsequently agreed to reschedule its loan repayments even though such a system is not common to the Chinese.
Thus though it seems both India and China – have eventually helped the country out at different times – are mostly at odds with each other. It is in this background Sri Lankan’s have to navigate a course between the two powers, and it is in this light have to view the latest crisis in which Sri Lanka as a country has to plan its moves.
A Chinese ocean research naval vessel Shi Yan 6 is scheduled to dock in Colombo harbour. The giant neighbour India has naturally raised objections to the entry of this vessel, as it has a capacity of gathering intelligence and as such poses a direct threat to India’s security. Gone are days of yore, today India will oppose entry of even an US vessel if it threatens India’s security.
China on the other hand insists the vessel is on a mere ocean research mission and poses no threat to the security of other countries.
What is sad however, is that Sri Lanka despite knowing India’s security situation because of Chinese economic moves to create indebted in Asian countries expects India not to press for denial of the Chinese vessel entry into Sri Lankan ports..
This is not the first time India has made such demands from the Sri Lankan government. Earlier this year, another Chinese research vessel too called at Lankan ports and India protested the visit on the same grounds.
However, the country’s present leadership was able to navigate these troubled waters successfully at that time. So India remains hopeful that the Lankan leadership will be able to resolve the present crisis without treading on the corns of Indian toes as the goodwill of India will always matter.
It is well known that China has ‘eyes in the sky’ via its satellite surveillance, just like the US and Russia all have this capacity (eyes in the sky).What everyone has to realize is that now even India has this capacity and probably a better one, at least over Asia and the Indian Ocean. Let there be no doubt in any one’s mind.
However Chinese do need to be physically in the vicinity to do radio monitoring, Ocean Survey, monitoring missile / satellite launches or weapons systems testing’s etc. Mere tracking them via their satellites is not good enough and India knows this. Sri Lanka should also know this.The submarine warfare on the Indian Continental shelf and around Sri Lanka is a very complex game for which China needs extensive data, it does not have.
On the other hand, it is possible this is China’s way to needle India because it feels that India seems to be moving closer to the US and the Western bloc. Well nowadays India has fador deciding its own foreign policy as viewed from prism on kutub minar.Now India itself is one of the poles of this multipolar world.
When China tried to “grab” Maldives a few years back then all its move were fully thwarted, politically, diplomatically and economically. Militarily PLAN flotilla had to turn tail right after crossing Sunda Strait. India is no more shy to indicate to all and sundry that after all India’s Ocean.
In case push comes to shove then IAF and the IN will not hesitate in hitting out at anyone giving access to Chinese Naval Ships ….Gwadar in Pakistan will be the first, IN case of conflict in the Himalyas India will severe the Chinese jugular vein …in the form of sea trade shipping lanes…passing through the Indian Ocean.
Whatever the reason, Sri Lanka has to remember that we have not only economic ties but also Geographical, Social and Religious ones. Militarily no one can be permitted to come between US.
