Biden Will continue to maintain tough stance on China
Dated : 21 Dec 2020 (IST)
Articles in Global Times clearly indicated that China had high hopes on Biden. They were hoping that once Joe Biden gets in the White House and along with the change on Capitol Hill, it may help renew business as usual, including restoring the trade ties facing many rifts. Chinese Communist Party thought that the change will cool the anti-Beijing heat in the administration, under President Donald Trump. However Joe Biden as the President-elect has already added to Beijing’s diplomatic frustration.
The Biden administration has given clear signals that it will maintain a tough stance against China in terms of future trade and tariffs and will target abusive trade practices by Beijing.
However China’s trade worries are not confined only to the US. In fact, it is facing a hard military, trade and diplomatic stance from India along the Himalayas and in the Indian Ocean Region. Even in the Pacific Australia too has taken a stand. Relations between Canberra and Beijing, which is the Pacific nation’s largest trading partner, have soured since Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent international investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic earlier this year. Beijing has slammed Australia for blocking a recent agricultural deal, its barring of Chinese tech giant Huawei from its 5G network and legislation outlawing foreign interference in Australia’s domestic politics.
Global business and trade experts and some, who have a direct interest in US-China and India-China, say: “The tough policies against China are here to continue, especially from the US, as President-elect Biden will not ‘lower the guard against China to provide any ammunition to the Republicans’.” And this comes from a common perception binding nations from America to Australia—China is a threat.
Says Mukesh Aghi, CEO and President of US-India Strategic Partnership Forum: “A common consensus between the Democrats and Republicans is that China is a strategic threat. Any compromise by Biden administration will be seen as a sign of weakness and will provide ammunition to the Republicans. Biden has no choice but to pursue a tougher policy. His style will not be to go alone but build a coalition of nations across Asia and Europe to counter China.”
After India stopped the PLA in Doklam and prevented the PLAN to come anywhere near Maldives during its Presidential crisis, it was Trump who became the first US President to challenge China. This was long overdue. As a result, Trump has the support of many Democrats as well as a majority of the American population when it comes to dealing with China. This is one of the few issues where Democrats and Republicans readily agree.
During the Obama administration, Biden as the Vice President was the main on the US-China relationship, so the Chinese placed their hope on him. However, the coronavirus along with the weakened US economy, the ongoing trade war as well as China’s global aggressiveness are not going to help Biden to soften his stance against China.
The worsening US-China trade war is sure to affect global business and trade and it is not going to end very soon, seeing the hard diplomatic exchanges between the two countries, including the US banning many Chinese companies from operation and threatening more sanctions.
Even the US companies with large investments in China and who were earlier lobbying for China are becoming wary of Chinese government insisting on joint ventures with local partners, forced transfer of IP etc. There is now a shift of global supply chain from China into India and other countries. US companies are getting more vocal in US against Chinese aggressive policies.
And what’s building against Beijing in Australia may soon be extended to other countries in the Pacific and ASEAN region, facing China’s unauthorized aggression and expansion. No wonder anticipating all this, the Indian Prime Minister earlier decided that India will not be joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.
China will continue to be assertive on countries especially pro-US allies such as Canada and Australia. These countries lack the economic and military might to oppose China, but at the same time are also expected by their citizens to stand up. This China tried similar tactics once again on India and now has been properly cut to size. It has realized that in long term such behaviour does not pay.
In Australia’s context, its export economy has been very much dependent on Chinese market. Down Under people have realized this and Aussies have sent clear signal to India and also to other countries in the region to seek alternate markets and allies.
Chinese aggressive stance in South China Sea, against Australia, Vietnam, Philippines is sending a message that the rise of China is a threat. China’s One Belt, One Road initiative has left white elephant-infrastructure across poor nations with large, unserviceable debt. Its nationalistic approach on most issues does not send a positive message or build confidence among global investors and citizens. However now with India standing up and taking its role seriously in World affairs, it has checked the Chinese onslaught to quite an extent.
Even Aghi asserts “No nation is indispensable. People, companies and countries adapt to changes with time. Trump administration’s America First, isolationist strategy gave opportunity for the Chinese to be more aggressive on a global stage. I believe Biden administration’s multilateral and coalition approach will temper this aggressive behaviour. India is a prime example that you can push a nation this far and they will draw a line. The Chinese are very much surprised at the resilient determination of Indian armed forces in Ladakh punching back at the Chinese. They are shocked. So it seems like India has a great opportunity waiting as China fights the multi-nation trade war.”
India has many advantages over other countries of the world including China and the US because of huge but younger population, geographical location the domestic production capabilities and consumption. On the trade and investment front India is already growing. To reach the 16th Century level of having the 25% of world GDP should be the endeavour once again.
