China’s Q1 GDP Covered By Grim Forecasts
Emerging trends for China’s foreign trade in the first quarter indicate that the double strike of a deadly pandemic and a trade war with US has taken its toll. China’s economic growth for the quarter is expected to go below 4 percent as gloomy global forecasts of negative growth loom.
China’s foreign trade dipped by 7 percent year-on-year to 6.57 trillion yuan ($933 billion) in the first quarter, official data showed on Tuesday. This decline shows that COVID-19 has been extremely troubling for many sectors, the overall impact is going to be quite harsh.
By March China’s total trade was down by more than 10 percent. This clearly demonstrates that the country has to work hard to ensure the balance between production resumption and virus control. Orderly production resumption is required to provide essential support in stabilizing foreign trade, thereby reducing economic losses and allowing the country to strive for the best possible economic performance through the year.
China will knowingly not offer specific numbers or ranges for the closely watched whole year GDP growth target in its Government Work Report expected to be released during the two sessions which will likely be held in June to hide the fact that its economy is not growing within a reasonable range.
At present, the major uncertainty in China’s economy comes from the Wuhan Virus. With the pandemic raging in many countries and regions, Chinese companies are facing risks of a sharp fall in overseas export orders. Coupled with an economic activity halt due to virus control measures in those countries, disruptions in global industrial and supply chains is likely to deal a more severe blow to China’s manufacturing sector.
ASEAN, which is regarded as the world’s fastest growing economy, surpassed the EU to become China’s largest trading partner in the first quarter. The shift has however rattled the ASEAN and sent them in a rethink and readjust mode. They have now started looking at SAARC, Japan and Australia.
