Closer co-op still possible between India and China for mutual benefits

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was sworn in as India’s prime minister for a third term as expected, as leader of the third National Democratic Front Govt. However Xi never sent in any congratulatory messages.

He may be happy that Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) did not get full majority on its own in the new avatar of National Democratic Front coalition government since 2014.

Will this continuation of coalition government for a third term be different for India’s policymaking, especially in terms of China policy? Will the India continue to push for the country’s economic development? How should Beijing calibrate its actions in relation to India ?

The BJP, and its allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), have formed a coalition government for the third time in continuation. Though this time BJP is not in full majority in the new government, all important portfolios remain with the BJP. So it is quite clear that there is likely to be business as usual as far as things go at the National and international level. There will be continuity of the policies and programs for sure. The coalition partners, all nationalists, have not demanded anything at the centre because they will negotiate big things for their states like special status and financial packages for development at the State level. A win win situation for Indian Union and the States.

Regarding India-China relations, from the perspective of the new government, it seems there will not be any remarkable change in India’s attitude toward China. However, improvement in the relationship can take place if Xi is ready to negotiate the Indo Tibetan international boundary.

Except the Indo Tibetan border, India-China relations has no problems. The coalition partners have a very pragmatic view of India-China relations. The Telugu Desam Party Chief N. Chandrababu Naidu is an extremely progressive, liberal and tech-savvy leader, so he will probably be in favour of improving relations with China, provided the boundary issue is resolved. The NDA government is as strong as the earlier two terms, so Xi should not start dreaming ( like Pakis did in 1965 with Shastri and during Kargil operations with Atal ) that he can browbeat the coalition government in any manner whatsoever.

Xi should be rest assured that that India [under Modi’s third term] will not be soft and accommodating on China though If China engages with India skilfully, things can and will improve.

One of the important issues that Modi has straight way started to deal in his third term is taking India’s economy to the next level. Many economic reforms will be done to move India to third place in the GDP table even in US Dollar terms by 2030 (and narrow the gap further in PPP terms )

This will be at the top of the new government’s economic agenda. Well there will be many difficulties that New Delhi may face in realizing this economic ambitions and it is here that China can play a help full role in dealing with them, provided the border problem is resolved.

While taking the economy to next level, another most urgent and important issue for the new government is employment generation. To address this, Modi Govt must focus on labour-intensive manufacturing, in the form of micro, small and medium enterprises, will be crucial. Additionally, rural and semi-urban-based manufacturing needs to be encouraged.

China has had a successful model on the above and so collaboration between the Indian and the Chinese industry, can help in significant progress in this regard.

Both China and India, have a lot to learn from each other trough cooperation in field of development. This includes poverty alleviation programs, rural development schemes, urbanization projects, development of industrial clusters, export promotion schemes, and most importantly, research and development and social infrastructure. Both should be willing to share their development models with each other. Soon the rest of the world will come knocking asking for help. Closer cooperation between India and China can result in mutual benefits.

Another thing is that India, with its growing global influence and ties with Russia and the US, has the potential to play a constructive role in easing tensions between the four powers. By using its neutral stance and commitment to strategic autonomy, India can facilitate dialogue and confidence-building measures among USA, Russia, China and India.

India can highlight the importance of the shared interests of all four countries for global stability and economic interdependence and the need for cooperation on issues like climate and pandemics. its status as the largest democracy and big advocate for a rules-based international order does carry goodwill, which can contribute to more stable relations.

Both China and India are representatives of the Global South, playing an active role within international organizations, including BRICS and G20. India and China stand as two of the most significant countries in the Global South.

They represent the largest and fastest-growing emerging economies. Both nations possess the leadership qualities and capabilities required to lead the Global South and stabilize the present emerging multipolar world.

Their unique competitive advantages, when combined, would prove exceptionally beneficial for the Global South. It is undeniable that the world is on the verge of a new world order and multi polarity, with India and China, alongside other BRICS nations, spearheading this transformative shift.

However everything boils down to managing the biggest issue, the Indo Tibetan border dispute. This has been festering since 1947 but can be solved if there is a political will among leaders on both sides. Once this is done other things will just follow, a Win Win for both as it was since dawn of history till 1700 AD.