Crisis in EU : Hungary opposes 50 billions in new EU aid for Ukraine
European Union is now a divided house. Its leaders at a summit on Thursday will focus on Hungry blocking a 50-billion-euro ($54 billion) war support package for Ukraine. After all Hungary, a country in the bloc has the closest ties to Russia and has to look after its economic interests. It cannot and should not blindly follow the rest.
Almost two years after Ukraine got into conflict with giant Russia, the war has not gone as envisaged by the USA and EU. After Russia liberated the Russian speaking areas the war has ground to a virtual stalemate and Ukraine has gone bankrupt. The sanctions imposed on Russia has failed to work as rest of the world has just ignored it.Now Ukraine desperately needs financial assistance.
“Securing agreement is vital for our credibility, and not least for our commitment to provide steadfast support to Ukraine,” EU Council president Charles Michel said in his invitation letter to leaders of the 27-member bloc. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to take part with a video speech, according to Michel’s office.
The aid requires unanimous support. But Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban vetoed it at a previous summit in December and continues to oppose it.
“In December, we still had a little time. But from March onwards, Ukraine will start running into difficulties according to international financial institutions,” a senior EU diplomat warned ahead of the meeting in Brussels. The official spoke on condition of anonymity in accordance with EU practices.
For most EU countries, helping Ukraine is crucial to maintain its show of “credibility “ on the global stage.
“Ukraine is on European soil. It is a European country. And if we want a peaceful and stable Europe, we need to be credible in terms of our own security and defence vis-a-vis all our neighbors,” French president Emmanuel Macron said.
Orban has repeatedly angered EU leaders since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. He criticized EU sanctions on Russia as being largely ineffective and counter-productive. He pushed for peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv, though he hasn’t detailed what that might mean for Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
At the previous EU summit, however, Orban did not prevent the EU from starting membership negotiations with Ukraine.
Concerned about democratic backsliding by Orban’s government, the EU has frozen Hungary’s access to tens of billions of euros in funds. Hungary, with its own economic concerns, has responded by vetoing some EU political decisions.
Instead of unlocking the new aid for Ukraine, Orban has proposed to split it into annual tranches and introduce a review mechanism. But that idea has not been well received because it would allow Orban to block the money later.
If the stalemate remains, it will not mean that Ukraine will suddenly be deprived of EU assistance. The EU diplomat said leaders will make sure it won’t impact Ukraine in the short term.
The 26 other countries could decide, on a voluntary basis, to decouple the aid from the EU budget. But it’s not their favorite option since it would require approval from several national parliaments, creating more uncertainty. This is te crux of the problem.It shows that Ukraine crisis is an agenda based event.
Another scenario could see EU leaders extending by one year the 18 billion euros ($19.5 billion) in financial assistance they provided in 2023 to Ukraine from another program, and top it up with additional loans. That could be adopted with a qualified majority, meaning Hungary could not stop it.
In total, EU support to Ukraine since the war began amounts to some 85 billion euros ($92 billion), according to EU figures. That includes more than 40 billion euros ($43 billion) to support Ukraine’s economy, around 27 billion euros ($29.2 billion) in military assistance measures and over 17 billion euros ($18.4 billion) to help EU member states support Ukrainians fleeing the war.
Other major powers like India, China, Brazil, Indonesia, Egypt and Saudi Arabia must support the end of Ukraine conflict and ask both Ukraine and Russia to sit at the negotiating table.
