Cross-border instabilities: Analyzing the root causes and geopolitical implications of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations

By Arun Anand

The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has plunged to a new low following the recent airstrikes in Afghanistan’s Paktika province.

These attacks, which claimed the lives of 46 people, mark the latest chapter in a long history of mistrust, conflict, and political instability between the two nations.

The airstrikes have not only exacerbated existing cross-border tensions but also underscored the intricate web of security, sovereignty, and geopolitical challenges that continue to destabilize the South Asian region.

This latest escalation is far more than a mere military confrontation; it reflects the entrenched historical grievances and strategic rivalries that have defined Afghan-Pakistani relations for decades.

To comprehend the gravity of these developments, it is crucial to delve into the historical backdrop of their fraught relationship, the strategic significance of Paktika province, Pakistan’s military rationale, and the broader implications for regional and international stability.

Historical Context of Afghan-Pakistani Tensions

The discord between Afghanistan and Pakistan is deeply rooted in their shared history, shaped significantly by the legacies of colonial rule and territorial disputes.

The partition of British India in 1947, which led to the creation of Pakistan, introduced the controversial Durand Line as the border between the two nations.

Afghanistan was the sole country to refuse recognition of this demarcation, and the Durand Line has since remained a source of contention for over seven decades.

This dispute is not merely a territorial disagreement but a symbol of the broader political and security dilemmas that have shaped relations between the two nations.

Following Pakistan’s creation, the geopolitical realities of the region transformed drastically. Afghanistan, influenced by regional power struggles, found itself at odds with Pakistan on numerous fronts.

During the Cold War, these tensions intensified. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s further complicated the dynamic. Pakistan’s strategic response involved supporting Afghan mujahideen fighters to counter Soviet influence, inadvertently laying the groundwork for the rise of groups like the Taliban.

While this strategy served short-term objectives, it left a lasting legacy of instability. Afghanistan became a safe haven for militant organisations, including al-Qaeda, which played a central role in the global War on Terror.

Post-9/11, Pakistan’s role as a US ally in the fight against terrorism introduced new dimensions to its relationship with Afghanistan.

Despite its partnership with the United States, Pakistan’s alleged support for specific militant factions to counterbalance India’s influence in Afghanistan sowed deep mistrust.

This so-called “double game” approach by Pakistan further strained its ties with Afghanistan, creating a cycle of suspicion and animosity.

Strategic Significance of Paktika Province

Paktika province, located in eastern Afghanistan, holds immense strategic importance due to its proximity to the Pakistan border. It shares boundaries with Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces, regions long plagued by insurgent activities.

The rugged, mountainous terrain of Paktika provides an ideal refuge for militant groups, including the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

These groups have frequently used the porous border to launch cross-border attacks, exacerbating Pakistan’s security concerns.

Paktika’s role in regional conflict was underscored by a recent attack on a Pakistani military post in South Waziristan, located just across the border.

This assault, which occurred on 21 December 2024, resulted in the deaths of 16 Pakistani soldiers. Pakistan attributed the attack to militants operating from Afghan territory, further fuelling tensions.

Earlier in March 2024, Pakistan conducted airstrikes targeting militant strongholds in Paktika and Khost provinces. These operations were aimed at groups allegedly linked to the Hafiz Gul Bahadur faction, which Pakistan holds responsible for orchestrating cross-border violence.

The enduring volatility in Paktika underscores the challenges both nations face in maintaining control over this restive region. The area’s difficult terrain and weak governance—both by Afghan authorities and the Taliban—have made it a focal point for insurgent activity.

Despite numerous military operations, the border remains insecure, allowing militant groups to exploit the situation to their advantage.

Pakistan’s military justifications

Pakistan has consistently framed its airstrikes in Afghanistan as necessary measures to combat cross-border militancy. The presence of TTP fighters in Afghan territory has been a longstanding concern for Islamabad, which views these groups as direct threats to its national security.

Pakistan accuses the Afghan government, particularly under the Taliban, of failing to prevent militants from using its soil to launch attacks against Pakistan.

In response, Pakistan’s military has adopted a strategy of preemptive strikes to neutralize these threats. The TTP, responsible for numerous attacks on Pakistani military and civilian targets, remains a top priority for Islamabad’s counterterrorism operations. By targeting militant hideouts in regions like Paktika, Pakistan aims to disrupt the operational capabilities of these groups and prevent further incursions.

Domestically, Pakistan’s military actions are also driven by growing public pressure. Frequent attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan have heightened demands for decisive action against militant groups.

The airstrikes serve as a demonstration of the government’s commitment to safeguarding its citizens and asserting control over its borders.

However, these actions have drawn sharp criticism from Afghanistan, which views them as violations of its sovereignty. The Taliban, despite its historical ties with Pakistan, has been unable to curb the activities of groups like the TTP.

Whether due to a lack of capacity or strategic reluctance, this failure has compelled Pakistan to act unilaterally. While Pakistan justifies its strikes as essential for national security, they have exacerbated tensions with Afghanistan and raised questions about the long-term efficacy of such measures.

Civilian impact and sovereignty concerns

The human cost of Pakistan’s airstrikes in Afghanistan has been significant. While the operations are aimed at militant targets, they have often resulted in substantial civilian casualties.

The recent strikes in Paktika, which claimed 46 lives, are a stark example of this toll. Displacement, destruction of homes, and disruption of daily life have compounded the suffering of Afghan civilians already enduring decades of war and economic hardship.

Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government has strongly condemned these airstrikes, describing them as blatant violations of the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. EnayatullahKhwarazmi, a Taliban spokesperson, denounced the strikes as acts of aggression that undermine Afghanistan’s sovereignty and breach international law.

Former Afghan President Hamid Karzai echoed these sentiments, criticizing Pakistan’s policies as counterproductive and damaging to regional stability.

For Afghanistan, these airstrikes are not only a humanitarian crisis but also a stark reminder of its vulnerability. Decades of conflict, weak governance, and reliance on external actors have left Afghanistan ill-equipped to address the challenges posed by cross-border militancy.

For Pakistan, however, these strikes are seen as indispensable measures to protect its sovereignty and security.

Geopolitical implications

The escalating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have far-reaching implications for regional stability. India, which has historically viewed Pakistan’s actions in Afghanistan with suspicion, sees these developments as a continuation of Islamabad’s strategy to assert dominance in the region.

New Delhi has accused Pakistan of using Afghan-based militant groups as proxies to counter Indian influence and destabilize the region. The involvement of global powers further complicates the situation.

The United States, despite its withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, remains an influential player in the region. Washington has long been critical of Pakistan’s alleged support for militant groups and is wary of any developments that could exacerbate terrorism. Similarly, China, with its significant investments in Pakistan through the Belt and Road Initiative, has a vested interest in regional stability.

A destabilized Pakistan could undermine China’s economic ambitions and create security challenges in its Xinjiang region.

The international community’s response to these tensions will likely shape the trajectory of Afghan-Pakistani relations. However, external actors must recognize that a sustainable resolution requires addressing the root causes of conflict, including the socio-political and economic disparities that fuel militancy and instability.

ConclusionThe recent airstrikes in Paktika province are emblematic of the deep-seated challenges that define Afghan-Pakistani relations. While Pakistan frames these actions as counterterrorism measures, their broader implications—including civilian casualties, sovereignty violations, and heightened regional tensions—cannot be ignored.

The ongoing instability along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border underscores the urgent need for both nations to pursue diplomatic solutions to their disputes.

A lasting resolution will require addressing the historical grievances and strategic rivalries that have shaped their relationship. Both countries must prioritize dialogue and cooperation, focusing on shared security concerns and economic development.

The international community, including regional powers like India and China, as well as global actors such as the United States, has a crucial role to play in facilitating this process.

For Pakistan, the path to stability lies in adopting a more balanced approach that prioritizes internal reforms and constructive engagement with its neighbors.

By addressing the root causes of conflict and fostering regional cooperation, Pakistan can secure a peaceful and prosperous future for itself and the region.

Without such efforts, the cycle of violence and instability will persist, with devastating consequences for both nations and the broader South Asian region.