Eukraine Crisis : Conflict and Confusion
By
Colonel Kirtiyanand Das
Lot of water has flown down the many rivers that drains the Eukrainian plains since the Russians lined up over a lakh of troops along its border with the Eukraine.
Eukraine being the cradle of Slavic civilisation from the time of Kevin Rus has been taken over by the little brother Russia turned Big Brother many times under many names. Eukraine has a love and hate relationship with both its western and eastern slave cousins.
Specially more with the Russians. Since the collapse of Soveit Union in early 90s, Eukraine also experienced a new lease of freedom like many break away countries but for a short period.
Americans remained disinterested with the Russia and retained the Cold War mentality through out. It investested more in China creating a Frankstien Monster for itself at the end.
West should have helped Russia along with the break way countries of former Soveit Union in the eastern Europe to integrate with EU and should have merged NATO and the Warsaw Pact for a common Security System for the Europe. That did not happen. Neglect led to resentment and reassertment.
Russia felt humiliated. Once youthful Putin came to power he steered Russia out of the mud and slush that its alcoholic leaders had put it into. Americans still looked at Russia through the Cold War spyglass. NATO over the years moved eastward and most of the East European countries joined the NATO one after the other.
This was contrary to the assurance given by the West that NATO will not move east beyond Germany. This caused the worry for the Russia. She was twice attacked by two major European powers in past. By France under Nepoleon and by Germany under Hitler. Russian fear was genuine.
The west continued with their honey moon with the Chinese, who robbed them of their capital and technologies and made mockery of their intellectual properties rights. Clinton presidency ignored all human right violation of China and permitted China the way it liked.
It is often remoured that Clinton presidential election campaigns were financed by the Chinese establishment and so was Obama’s and even of Biden. Biden son’s Chinese business links have often come in to light.
Americans should have treated Russia in a similar way as they treated Germany after the war and got it integrated with NATO and EU. They should have extended same courtesy to Russia as well and then the things would have been quite different.
They wanted Russia to go pastoral and become insignificant like any Asian-African countries. But that did not happen. Russia has bounced back and has turned the table on both NATO and the US. The neglect and humiliations that Russia got from the West pushed her into ‘deeper friendship’ with the Chinese.
Russia has almost everything other than a robust economy like China and the West. It has a robust war machine and Putin wants to put in that to a maximum use. Its sole big revenue generating assets are its hydrocarbon reserves.
Europe needed it and Russia needed revenue to restore its sagging economy. It was a Win Win for both. An economic tie would revive the old cultural knot of Europe. But then that would reduce the significance of NATO. That would reduce the sale of weapons and equipments that earns profit for the American War Industries.
This became difficult for the Devil’s Industries and then they wanted a rift between the Europeans. A sort of coup was engineered in Eukraine and pro Russian president was ousted and a pro American comedian was brought in to unfold tragedies on the stage! Russia reacted, moved in to Crimea and then into eastern Eukraine where Russian population dominates.
And then followed sanctions to which Russia has got used to. Ukraine is not a NATO member state and so the West isn’t bond by treaty obligations to come to its support. Mere moral and little material support isn’t going to make any difference when the adversary is Russia. Eukraine has created a mess for herself by believing in West for their support in time real crisis as of now.
Let see how the West reacts other than routine sanctions! Now that Russia has invaded. Certainly what Russia has done cannot be called correct. Diplomacy should had a chance along with the offices of the existing institutions. But that wasn’t given a chance and if at all it came then it was too little and to late.
World is slipping into medieval mindset in present era. NATO was in Afghanistan. They have just retreated in most shameful manners from there under the American leadership. In case EU under NATO fights Russia and harms each other, that will please China more than the rest of the world.
As it is the world will pay for the damage that world economy will be forced to suffer. China will wish that both side fight and finish each other like the proverbial Kilkenny cats. Americans wanted the Russia to attack, now that it has attacked the Americans and EU look wool gathering in thoughts and knee jerk actions in their response.
China is watching the whole situation keenly for it will plan its own actions in times to come against Taiwan, South China Sea, Sino – Indo and other make believe border disputes with almost all of its neighbors, including Russia in the far east. The Chinese need the Russian hydrocarbon resources as it would be both safe to avail and cheap.
The Chinese need a partner in the Pacific. And there is Russia there with some 4000 plus kilometers of Pacific coast and a navy that has a rich experience from mid eighteenth century. Arrogance and greed of America has pushed Russia into Chinese folds whereas they would have been a useful partner in sorting out Chinese menace.
World just has to wait and watch how the things move and how powers play their parts. India has to perform a very tight rope walk. Russia has been an old trusted friend. India is still dependent on the Russian weapons and equipments. There are so many feild in which both countries collaborate and cooperate. And it’s continuance is good for India.
More over the Russian goodwill may be useful in softening up the conflict with the China!Then the Quad and American paternship in Indo – Pacific is equally essential and important in keeping Chinese under check and at bay. Then it is better to have new and better technologies available and approachable that is the American one.
For situations will be fluid for sometimes and more options are all always desirable. Indian economy is doing reasonably well despite the many waves of Covid that hit it hard. And it’s military is most experienced war fighting in the world. All sides will like to keep it on its right side. It’s a power in making if not already made.
It is better for India to keep equi distance from all. And grow its economy and replace its rival China in world supply chain in near future. Plug its neighbourhood so that influences that are inimical to its security are kept at distance. And its fault lines are not ignited by its adversaries. For quite sometimes disturbances have been continuously caused sapping up its strength and energy.
China will remain a cause of concern for India till it is cut to its proper size that is, it is brought within the boundary that has been known as China Proper of sixteen provinces of pre Yuang(Mongol) China. Before that India must move way ahead of Chinese economy and grow its military might that will deter adversaries old and new from misadventures.
Try to group the South Asian countries into a mutually beneficial group, sort of Confederacy. Geopolitics is a time consuming concept to mature and not ever lasting. A continental size country like India needs its own strength to stand and fend for itself. It’s own strength will attract friends and deter enemies.
