From string of pearls to the paupers on the periphery
By Col Kritya Nand Das
Decades back China was busy in acquiring ports to be developed into naval bases in future , in the Indian Ocean Region. Its extent was large from Cambodia in the east to Djibouti around the Horn of Africa in the far west. As per the plan it has acquired many ports over the years on the rim of Indian Ocean and have made these part of its Belt and Road Initiative as well.
Port at Sihanoukville and near by Dara Sakor international airport with 3200 meters runway has been brought into Chinese folds in Cambodia.
The development of railways in the Laos would be linked to these facilities with the Chinses facilities already existing in South Central China.
China depends heavily on its energy supplies from the Middle East hydrocarbon resources. And for many raw materials it is heavily dependent on Africa, where its invests are ever increasing. Chinese presence in Africa is very wide and extensive, from Fujian chinese vegetable seller in a remote village to mega rail and road, mega thermal and hydal projects across the continent.
China has always been a food deficit nation. It has 23% of world’s population and only 7% of ariable land. Feeding its mouths has always been a nightmare for Chinese Literati elite. So much so mouth sign features to represent a Chinese household in its character. And hence insects and animals of all types are included to make up for the grain deficiency in Chinese food habits. Even today China hoards fifty percent of available food grains on the planet to avoid a food riot, an indication of loss of heavenly mandate to rule.
Presently, Chinese import their grain from South America across Atlanic Ocean and then through Indian Ocean. All these materials presently sail through strait of Malacca.
Sometimes back an idea was a float of digging a canal through the Isthmus of Kra in Thailand to avoid going through the Malacca strait. But that seems to have been selved for now.
Development of railways in Laos, has plans of South Westward extension so as to link Vientiane, the Laotian capital to Bangkok. A rail system running through Malaysia was planned to reach up to Singapore. These system can be put to double uses.These can be put to use for the movement of men and materials for both trade and war.
In Myanmmar China is investing heavily in developing a deep sea port at Kyaukpyu and it will be linked by both rail and road to Kunming, the capital of Yunnan province of China. This port along with the linked rail and road links will give China a way to avoid the trap of Malacca strait to reach Mainland China straight from Bay of Bengal. This also provide China a corridor along the Indian North East and can made use of to pose a threat to India if required and an opening into the Bay of Bengal.
China has been busy extending its debt trap to Bangladesh. It has over five dozen projects of various kinds in Bangladesh. Many are coal fired power plants. Which may not have long future in view of climate change which may limit the lives of these coal fired plants. But that goes in China’s favour, besides making money by sale of machineries, it also provides opportunities to get rid of their old plant machineries on the sly. It will any way get the buyer country into famous Chinese Debt Trap any way .
China is good at killing many birds with one stone and facilitate stone age conditions in the host country !
China has invested in Chittagaon port in east and Mongla port in the west. These ports will be linked by rail and road with the Dacca from where arrays of rail line projects will move eastward to Sylhet, westward toward Jessore and northward towards Maymensingh. All radiating towards Indo-Bangladesh borders. With such Chinese presence in port and communication facilities like road and rail links, the vulnerability of Indian North East will increase many folds
Some years back Maldives was manipulated into Chinese Debt Trap. Many Isalamist groups along with Pakistan supported ones made their presence visible in the island country. Government was unnecessarily anti India, may be on Chinese and Pakistani coaxing. Some how that incumbent anti India government was replaced by relatively a government that was not anti India and the change was brought through democratic elections. But still Chinese are holding on to some islands, taken on lease for the purpose of developing those into tourist hubs. Who knows into what hubs the Chinese will turn them into?
And then the port of Gwadar on Makaran coast in Pakistan, connected to China Occupied Eastern Turkistan (Xinjiang) in the Chinese far South West through China Pakistan Economic Corridor. Through this port China gets an opening into the Arabian Sea and a corridor on the India’s Western border to threaten India with Pakistan as loyal ally.This also shorten its energy and grain supply line further besides avoiding passage through the trap of Malacca strait, which is always vulnerable from India and emerging Quad and Aukus.
The present turmoil in Baluchistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhawa and general bad situation prevailing in entire Pakistan, has put some question marks on Gwadar-CPEC though.
And with Djibouti, with Chinese presence, completes the String of Pearls and inhances its controll in the Indian Ocean Region. Besides securing the long shiping supply lines , it also keeps an eyes on Indian naval assets and activities in the region and fulfills China’s ambition to contain India’s control of Indian Ocean.
In the recent past Chinese spy ship Yuang Wang 5 had been very active making full use of Hanmantota Port in SriLanka, specially during the launchs of Indian space crafts and missile tests.
Once the infra facilities of BRI progresses further the Chinese activities will increase many folds.
China wants to keep Indian Ocean safe for its energy , raw materials and grain shipments. To achieve that it will want to see minimum Indian or Western naval assets and presence in the Indian Ocean Region. Besides increasing its naval bases and presence, it will keep increasing its activities in the Himalayas, so that India is forced to keep its attention more focused in the north on the mountains and less in south on the seas.
And nibble as much territories as it can in the salami slicing tactics.
So much so for the String of Pearls, now look at the Paupers on the Periphery!
Some years back SriLanka was doing well. It was able to meet it’s needs for the food through its agriculture and earning foreign exchange from tourism and export of tea.Then came Chinese with their String of Pearls and BRI projects. Great names , great sounds of infra facilities creating projects!
China indulged in bribing the corrupt local politicians to make their country bite the bait and fall into famous Chinese Debt Trap by joining BRI.
Rajapaksas became the easy prey. They took loans at Chinese terms for projects that had no viability and no sufficient earnings to pay back the loans.They had to lease out their Hanmantota Port for ninety-nine years to China towards payment for the loan.The country defaulted at the end. Besides loosing face internationally, SriLankan people had to go through miseries of non availabilities of food, fuel and medicines. Rajapaksa family were holding almost every important post in the government. People rose in revolt and Rajpaksas fled the country. SriLankan fell into anarchy. Country was ruined. Chinese looked th other way. India came to their help by providing essential items of food, fuel and medicine through on line credit. The country is still far away from recovering. It’s growth is in minus.It will, for many years live on doles provided for by friends and well wishers.
From a relatively prosperous state with high rate of literacy it has been reduced to a pauper state by falling into Chinese Debt Trap.
Now Pakistan is trotting on similar path on which SriLanka had trotted. Pakistan has no food to feed its people. Food riots have broken out in most parts of the country. There is no electricity in most part of the country including Islamabad and Rawalpindi. The foreign reserve is low and the county is on the verge of default. There are secessionist movements in every state except Punjab. Instability and uncertainty is looming large. Political parties are at loggerheads with each other. Deep state that is the Pak Army , which had been the power behind the throne, is generally lying low. Pakistan’s anti India attitude and Kashmir obsession have dragged it to this stage and state. Army has been orchestrating both anti India attitudes and Kashmir obsession so as to grab maximum resources for the betterment of itself at the cost of the people.
Since bulk of Army is recruited from Punjab, the other three states that is Baluchistan, Sindh Pakhtun Khoa and POK and Gilgit and Baltistan have little or no share in these general loot of state resources by Punjabi army and the state. So the feeling of alienation is high and revolts are irrupting. Both Afghanistan and Tahrike Taliban e Pakistan (TTP) are at war with Pakistan state. Pakistan is virtually begging around for funds but both Arab states and Iron brother China are turning their faces away from a friendin need! It doesn’t know how to approach India for help.
Its military, beaurocracy, politicians, religious leaders and the landed gentry are corrupt to the core and unconcerned about the common masses.They indulge in loot and laundering out the same to safe heavens out side Pakistan. Pakistan wasn’t ever a prosperous state but certainly it is a pauper state now. Its literacy rate is low and public mind is thoroughly poisoned with Jehadi teachings. All miseries of masses are assigned to India and other distant powers. No blame is put on the Deep State , the political and the religious elites.
Mass uprising hasn’t yet occurred against the political outfits and military.That may or may not happen but the country is ruined and it is likely to turn into heaven for pseudo religious terror gangs and drug mafia and a nightmare for its neighbors!
Pakistani may go for easier wrongs than go for the difficult rights! Increasing the degree of difficulty for its neighbors with whom it has generally been at loggerhead.
So another pauper at the Periphery!
The Communists have again come to power in Nepal. They are very pally with their Han comrades. Nepal has also been lured like the rest by the Chinese. And who knows they too will go the way Sri Lanka has gone and the Pakistan is going through. Chinese will be easily able to charm their Nepali comrades and then India may have another pauper state on its periphery coaxed by Chinese to be anti India.
Then on the eastern periphery awaits Myanmmar to follow the fates of India’s southern and western neighbors. Myanmmar under its military junta is isolated internationally. Its dependence on China is larger than the rest.It has been busy suppressing democratic aspirations of its people in the country and finds a natural ally in Autocratic China. Will Myanmmar turn into a pauper state like SriLanka and Pakistan? Who knows? Only time will tell!
Bangladesh has been generally doing better than the rest in the recent times in the region. So was SriLanka some years back. Will she too be fooled by China into Debt Trap like the rest and brought to ruins and turn into a pauper state on the India’s periphery?
Hope it doesn’t!
But as things look BRI followed by massive loans and making debtor country go phut. Shows some patterns. Is it a design by the crooked Chinese?
Chinese are known practitioner of deception. Deception and deceit are prescribed by their books and have been practiced and perfected over many millienums in both war and peace.
China has never been a Civilisational State. It is often called so by knives and less informed. It has always been a super state as was Nazi Germany or Stalin Russia.So it has little hold on its action from the traditional past of good behavior and civilized conduct within and without. So it is natural for China to go to any low level of conduct and behavior. World had a glimpse in their recent past of its wolf warrior diplomacy and making unsubstantiated territorial claims in its immediate neighborhood and also far and beyond. So one should be ready for Chinese deceit!
All that is happening to the countries on India’s periphery have a set patern.It looks more like a well worked out design rather than a sudden irruptions of events abruptly as a default. A destabilized , destitute and disturbed neighborhood will ultimately be a burden on India. What will India do when hungry destitutes line up on its border seeking food and shelter. It will be difficult to shoot them down as one can do to an army of invaders. It will face an invasions by the paupers. And will be helpless to stop them kinetically. That will make border management more difficult and will disturb the environment in the country and in the region.
China will dole out helps to ease the deserate moment iniatially to look clean and concerned and keep the situation live and disturbed so that it keeps repeating at a regular intervals on its own or when required. It will manipulate things in such way that problem continues and cures are not easilyavailable. And China retains the levers to increase or decrease the degree of destitution and disturb India in different and difficult ways as never before.
Before a solution is sought, the causes of problem need to be identified.
It has been caused by China.
It follows a pattern.
It has been helped by corrupt local leadership.
People need to revolt and reform and change the system.
A disturbed and destitute neighborhood for India will not only be a difficult situation to deal with but will be a political nightmare. It will not only keep India contained within its borders but will also consume it, at the least cost to the Chinese state.
Some Positive Vibes ! :-
Both state and individuals are questioning themselves as to why Pakistani state has failed and society has crumbled. That itself is a good sign, and may be a good beginning.
Even the Two Nations Theory has come under criticism.
The Deep State / Establishment has come under criticism as well though in huss -huss tone.
It must graduate to gherao of GHQ and to attacks on the palaces of Army Cheif, Corps Commanders, politicians , jagirdars , Vaderas and the Mullas as it had happened in SriLanka.
Destroy their feifs and outfits and discredit them completely.
Pakistan friends are advising them to burry the hatchet and seek friendship with India as real and lasting solution.
Disintegration of Pakistan may be a better solution for the various ethnic groups of present day Pakistan for both the people of present day Pakistan in particular and region in general. Bangladesh is a shining example of success of a disintegration.
Pakistan had been a bad dream and it must break for the good of people trapped with in its present boundaries and the region!
Can Pakistan be trusted? That will remain a million dollar question!
May be states in the subcontinent will realize their mistakes and seek solutions within the subcontinent itself and not without.
India should facilitate positive changes in its neighborhood.
Sooner the better.
