INDIA-CHINA BORDER STANDOFF Will Boost India’s World Standing
By
Colonel Awadhesh Kumar, Special Forces Veteran
Ashley J Tellis, an American, an American expert on International Security has written a lot on India and its security environment. He fears that the Ladakh face-off between India and China could well escalate into an armed conflict between the two Asian giants. Though there is nothing great in making such guesses, as all such face offs have this possibility.
Tellis, being an American, thinks in the American way, whereas the Chinese and the Indians think in a totally different way. Before 1962, Nehruvian Indian Government behaved in an arrogant manner and after 1962 went into a total dhoti shivering mode.
Though Indira Gandhi tried to turn the tide but could not change the thinking system of the governing politico- bureaucrats – diplomatic system. As it is, the Indian military was out on a limb.
Narshimanh Rao shrewdly laid the foundation of a new India but quietly. Atal ji announced it with a loud bang in 1998. However new edifice of new India has started coming up only with effect 2014 with removal of the UPA from the Centre. Now India no more catches cold because someone has sneezed in London or Washington. The World is being watched by Powers in Delhi from the New Delhi prism and not that of others.
As per Tellis “India could engage in a physical eviction of the Chinese forces but that would almost certainly lead to a military skirmish, which could have some potential for escalation into major conventional options. So that’s not a very attractive prospect as well. But the third and the most interesting possibility is that India can play tit-for-tat.
There are various salients along the LAC where India has the tactical advantage and the capacity to occupy territories. So India could respond by essentially doing what the Chinese have done.”
Tellis forgets that unlike 1962, India has a highly defensible force deployed all along the LAC, with adequate defence. Whereas, on the Tibetan Plateau, due to geography and undeveloped Tibet, it is not easy for the Chinese to sustain a very large force on the LAC on continuous basis. Ordinarily they keep only three brigades on this southern LAC of theirs.
However now for the tension they have created, they have to keep a very large force on the LAC and on high alert. In addition their intrusion in Galwan area is just not sound tactically, and can be swept aside by an Indian onslaught in no time.
The main reason, Chinese have done this intrusion are two. The first being that this tension in no time has diverted the attention of all Chinese, Indians and Asians to Ladhak from Wuhan. Trump has been forgotten by Asia. Now rest of whatever is left of this World also has the choice of either watching Trumps antics or turn their focus on Indo Chinese relationship. Next after some respectable time frame, Chinese will take a step back, negotiate with India and show the world that they are very sensible.
Second is that, just in case,the Indians back down then Chinese will further consolidate their position not only in Ladhak but also as a world super power. Thus the Chinese have chosen the time for mobilisation in the Ladakh region in a very calculated manner. In one stroke, Wuhan and Hong Kong both problems have become very very secondary.
America because of Corona virus, trade war, Afghanistan withdrawal, Pakistan, Indo Russian relationship, independent Indian thinking and incoming Presidential elections is in no position to rush and declare unconditional support for India.
This has again exposed the American government in a negative manner. Also Trump’s offer for mediation has received a frosty response from both New Delhi and Beijing.
The Chinese Ambassador to New Delhi has already started making appropriate noises. China will not sacrifice the gains it has made in terms of building a working relationship with India for really marginal territories. India has stood up militarily and diplomatically in response to China’s buildup. So finally both sides will stand down and the Chinese will pull back to their tactically defensive positions.
India has already speeded up its infrastructure build up along the Himalayan LAC and this will continue. India now has to add all the missing force multipliers to the 17 Corps. Along should come up the deployment and visit of a Carrier Battle Group to Vietnam. Here comes the importance of the third Aircraft Carrier and should be noted particularly by the Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat.
In fact by the time this crisis is over, India will become the third super balancing factor in the World power structure.
