India, Russia Friendship Will Keep Increasing
Nearly everyday, there are articles or news reports regarding souring of relationship between two of the best friends ….India and Russia. It seems that some vested interest are trying to drive a wedge between these two countries.
The Russian embassy in New Delhi has just denied a report in the Indian media that Moscow, at Pakistan’s behest, sought to keep India out of discussions on Afghanistan. As per the biased report “ the Russian position should not come as much of a surprise. Disagreements between India and Russia, on geopolitics, are only likely to grow, and Afghanistan is just one among many such issues. “
India and Russia have a host of common interests,even if both New Delhi and Moscow have some own imperatives. Both the countries understand these perfectly. Russian confrontation with the West broadly, and with the US in particular, forces Moscow to lean more heavily on Beijing. That does in no way make India and Russia less useful to each other. Even China and India would have learned towards each other but for the Chinese foolishness displayed openly. After all BRICS, was meant to become a very powerful economic block. It is better that West acknowledges this reality and refrains from trying to drive a wedge between Indo Russian relationship. American expectations of getting India to join the Western Military Block will never fructify.
Russia has been useful to India in many ways, particularly in enhancing Indian military power. Indua can never forget the Russian response during the Bangladesh liberation war of 1971, when the US Navy taskforce entered the Bay of Bengal led by nuclear powered and nuclear armed USS ENTERPRISE.
Presently Moscow’s political compulsion is there to support China in the political / economic conflict between China and the West led by USA. Though Russia never came out in support of China in the present conflict in Galwan Valley and Pangong Tso area. In fact it supported India. So it is clear that New Delhi has a dependable friend in the form of Russia. India’s dependence on Moscow for weapons is no more a vulnerability and there is going to be more MAKE IN INDIA cooperation in construction of naval ships, Submarines and fighters and even space ships.
Indian diplomacy too never tries to drive a wedge between Russia and China but instead concentrates on strengthening Own bilateral relationship in every field possible. Both have realized that they can be more useful to each other and need not worry about bilateral relationship between Russia- China, India -USA, India – Japan and India – Europe.
Similarly, India and Russia can together ensure establishing a “multipolar global order”. This is something that can come up simply by each supporting the other against any form of hegomony by any Power.
Economically, there is lot to work upon between the two Countries and the work has started. India is slowly increasing its investment in the development of the Russian Far East. The two countries also set to increase their bilateral trade. Presently China’s economy is more than three times as large as India’s and Russia’s combined (but only in american dollar terms and not in PPPterms ). Asia, taken by itself, is no more Unipolar as shown by India’s standing upto China. Also India and Japan together have indicated that no one can dictate things in Asia. In case any one thinks that the world is heading towards a US-China bipolarity is highly myopic and greatly mistaken.
The source of sabotaging Indian and Russian relations lies in the continuing problems that Russia faces in its relations with the US. There can be little doubt that the US was, at the least, careless in how it treated Russia in the decade after the end of the Cold War. There can be equally little doubt that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggressive behaviour on a range of issues, from Ukraine, to the dealing with Russian dissidents in the West, to his efforts to meddle in the 2016 US presidential elections were not welcomed by the USA. Even Donald Trump who had a bit of a soft corner for Putin, his own administration’s response to Russia was not particularly soft. President Biden and his administration is likely to be tougher. The just-released Biden ‘interim’ strategic guidance document begins by pointing at the “growing rivalry with China, Russia and other authoritarian states”.
Putin has shown little indication that he will soften towards the West either. These are early days, of course, and things may change – the two countries did agree to extend the New START nuclear arms treaty just three weeks after Biden took over. But it is difficult to see much cooperation or even a reduction in tensions between the two sides in the immediate future.
The consequence of this confrontation is that Moscow has increasingly leaned on China both for support as well as to restrict American power. The military relationship between the two has become increasingly close: in addition to conventional weapons, Russia is also helping China set up its missile early warning system, one of the most sensitive bits of technology for any nuclear power. However Russia is also giving more advanced technology in the S400 system to India also. USA is fuming because earlier India had rejected the American missile defence system after cursory evaluation.
In case there is a distancing between India and Russia, it will serve China, however, it will also serve the USA, as it will force India to draw closer to the American Camp.
A rift rift between Moscow and Washington will again help China. With an economy about half the size of India’s, Russia is not much of a competitor to China. But Russia can still be a source of high-technology weapons for China. China’s broader technological base surpasses Russia’s but it still has the odd weakness: it flies a fifth-generation fighter jet but it needs a Russian engine, a dependence that Beijing is clearly unhappy with. More importantly, Russia provides useful political support for Beijing at a time when China has taken on many other powers.
Like all international partnerships, including India-Russia relations, India USA relationship, the China-Russia partnership is one of convenience. Indian policy has now changed and India has started looking at the rest of the World from purely Indian perspective. India now too is now both economic and Military power with its own dynamics which rest of the World has to take into account ….not even the Americans, Chinese or the Russians can ignore India any more.
