India To Deepen Its Strategic Ties With Central Asian Republics
India has had historical, cultural and religious links with the Central Asian countries. After all ancient Indian empires extended well into most of modern day Afghanistan. Naturally India’s interaction with these countries has expanded after the changed dispensation in New Delhi. Many high-level visits, including by the Indian PM in July 2015, and joining of the SCO are have been important land marks. Today Kazakhstan is India’s biggest trade partner among the Central Asian Republics.
What hinders closer integration and a major constraint is lack of land route connectivity. The trade routes to these countries pass through Pakistan-Afghanistan and Xinjiang, all highly troubled areas. Even the Sea route to Iran was severely impacted due to the US sanctions. India has to now take a stand on this in It’s own National interest. Therefore India and the CA countries are now trying to set up better transportation links using the Chabahar port.
India and CA countries relationship now have a strategic dimension. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have emerged as important suppliers of uranium to fuel India’s nuclear power plants. Tajikistan provided critical help in the evacuation of Indians from Afghanistan. It will be in India’s interest to augment its linkages with these countries to reduce their dependence on China. Also the new Indian policy for peace in Afghanistan will be with help of these Countries. All out side players have to leave Afghanistan, there is no other way. India must and will exert itself in time to come.
India already hosted a conclave which coincided with OIC conclave in Pakistan. However it was attended by the foreign ministers of all these CA countries. Now India is planning to invite the Presidents of these five Central Asian (CA) states, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan as chief guests at the forthcoming Republic Day celebrations. The decision is a recognition of the shifting geo-political trends in Afghanistan, increasing threats to India’s security from terror groups based there and emergence of CA countries as strategic partners. The Chinese expanding economic and security outreach in this region also needs to be countered.
Recently, there has been a sharp increase in India’s interaction with the CA states. Last month, India hosted the National Security Advisors of Russia, Iran and the CA states for a dialogue on Afghanistan. Earlier this year, EAM Jaishankar had visited Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and also held a meeting with his Turkmenistan counterpart.
Central Asia is home to the world’s biggest untapped resources of oil, gas and minerals. It is also a key gateway for connectivity with Russia, the Middle East and Europe. While Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are endowed with attractive hydrocarbon deposits, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have considerable strategic importance. Three CA states, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan share common borders with China; similarly, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan share borders with Afghanistan while Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are proximate to India.
Russia earlier established the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) in 2015 to foster closer economic ties with its ex-Soviet Republics, including the CA states. Its record has been patchy.
Another multilateral grouping which Russia set up, this time with China and four CA states (all except Turkmenistan) was the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) on June 15, 2001, mainly to fight against regional terrorism, ethnic separatism and religious extremism. India and Pakistan were added in 2017 and now a decision has been taken to include Iran.
Russia and China look at SCO in terms of strengthening their influence in Afghanistan and South Asia. The SCO has taken some initiatives against the spread of terrorism, separatism and encourage cooperation in agriculture, energy, education, pharmaceuticals and IT.
In the field of security, Russia has established a Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) with Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, providing formal security guarantees to its members. Russia has expanded its military presence in CA by deploying new anti-aircraft missile systems, tanks and infantry fighting vehicles at its bases in Tajikistan.
China views Central Asia as a buffer between an unstable Afghanistan and its Xinjiang province and as a transit point for its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to reach across the Middle East and Europe. It is building high-speed rail lines, roads and other infrastructure to connect CA with Europe. China’s FDI in the five CA countries reached $14.7 billion in 2018 from $8.9 billion in 2013. Its investments have been made to secure a steady supply of hydrocarbons, minerals and seek tacit cooperation for Beijing’s political agenda.
While Russia remains the main security provider in CA, China is gradually expanding its role keeping the Russian sensitivities in mind. In 2016, China set up a military base in Tajikistan’s Gorno-Badakshan region to prevent the infiltration of Uighur activists via the Wakhan corridor. China also established a new regional mechanism, including Tajikistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan, to monitor the security situation in this area.
Since 2002, China has conducted many military exercises with the CA countries, both under the SCO framework and bilaterally. China has emerged as an important exporter of military equipment (mainly air defence systems, drones, armoured carriers and surface missiles) and technologies to the CA countries.
Now India too is planning to join the fray in a big way.
