India’s New Geopolitics After Fall Of Kabul To Taliban
By
Colonel Awadhesh Kumar, Veteran
The withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Afghanistan is likely to force India to finally shed all its inhibitions and take up the role of a emerging global Power. This will certainly lead to a re balancing of India’s current relations with the Russia, France, Germany, China, the United States, Iran and Pakistan.
The re balancing is likely to lead to greater cooperation with France and Germany in nearly all fields. Even with Iran there will be increased economic cooperation along with cooperation in shaping things in Afghanistan. Things are like to deteriorate further with deeper conflicts with Pakistan and may remain on a short fuse with respect to China. There will certainly be greater cooperation with Russia over geopolitics in Central Asia. Relationship with USA may improve but at a very slow pace as India will progressively be more assertive.
For long, India’s foreign-policy experts had been pointing about the dangers of Pakistan hoodwinking USA and cultivating and mentoring the Taliban. The Americans fully aware of this, wanted to pull in India to deploy its Forces in Afghanistan. Thereafter the USA would have pulled out as suddenly as they have done now. Then India would have been left on its own to protect Afghanistan against a combined Taliban- Pakistan – China Combination.
Wisely, India did not listen to Washington and continued only with its planned economic uplifting of Afghanistan. The conditions for India’s political and economic engagement with Afghanistan were quite favourable at that time. However with Americans pulling out, Taliban-controlled Afghanistan is likely to once again become Pakistan’s partner in promoting jihadi terrorism against India.
However New Delhi has no choice but to come out of its hibernation and start playing its true role in the geopolitics starting with Asia. USA going out of Afghanistan should be taken as a good riddance. Last around 350 years, initially UK and later the USA have been playing a rather disruptive role in Asia in the name of providing stability. Now time has come for India to organize its own GREAT GAME. A good thing for India will also be that after the withdrawal from Afghanistan the current strategic relationship between Washington and Islamabad is bound to weaken. Pakistan will firmly be pulled into Chinese fold. Ever since 1947 the U.S.-Pakistani relationship has been dangerous till 1971 and thereafter more of an irritant for India.
Though in near future India’s has to be very vigilant regarding cross-border terrorism with the return of Afghanistan to Taliban rule. However some firm actions on ground together with clear message to all, should normalize things in no time. May be, we will have to even pose a very serious but calibrated threat to Pakistan towards liberation of Gilgit Baltistan area. New Delhi is now much better prepared than before in dealing with all types of challenges from a nearly bankrupt Pakistan.
Since last few years India has even responded with military means to confront Pakistan for its support to cross-border terrorism through cross-border military raids and aerial attacks on terror camps in Pakistan. A deliberate show of strength for liberation of Gilgit Baltistan will send the required message to the Pakistani establishment deep or otherwise and also to China.
American administration on the other hand will now try and give more priority on the Indo Pacific. The Biden administration already has an ambitious plans for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—a strategic partnership with Australia, India, and Japan known as the “Quad”. So they have put New Delhi at the very top of Washington’s list of strategic priorities.
However India should not rush into QUAD activities but only take one deliberate step at a time. Before QUAD, India must strengthen its own backyard through the Colombo Security Conclave and make the Indo Pacific a sub set of the same.
Beijing which has been strongly opposing USA actions in Afghanistan, has been quietly preparing itself to play a larger role there. However Beijing will playing an economic role, a big one, rather than any military role. It will go in for developing Afghanistan’s substantial mineral resources. China is already developing a copper mine southeast of Kabul. Beijing will also extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor into Afghanistan.
For military purposes in Afghanistan, it will be using Pakistan as a proxy. This will be required because one of the NATURAL destination of Taliban politics will be a move towards Xinjiang, a very restive province of China which the locals term it as Occupied.
Coming to Russia, the Indo Russian friendship is time tested and unlike the Indo American friendship. Russia’s successful outreach to the Taliban amid India’s own deliberate distancing from the group May seem to be contradictory to many but the moves are quite complimentary. This should become more clear in coming days. The Panjshir Valley and other strongholds of anti Taliban forces are not going give in to the Taliban but will hold out.
India therefore must continue with its strategy of multi-alignment—sustaining simultaneous strategic partnerships with the Russia, France, Israel, Japan, United States, Iran,Saudi Arabia and even China. It should develop new strategic partnership with Vietnam, Indonesia, Germany and Australia.
