Indo – Russian Defence Ties Will Always Remain Bigger than Indo – US Defence Ties
By
Colonel Awadhesh Kumar, Veteran
One of the biggest changes in India’s foreign policy has been that now India has started looking at the world through the prism of its own National Interest It is no more dependent on what Washington, Moscow, Beijing or that nearly obscure and forgotten London thinks. India no more catches cold when Washington starts sneezing.
Yes indeed there has been increasing cooperation with the US on World Affairs. This is evident not just at better understanding and dialogue at the diplomatic level, but also in military-to-military arms purchases and relations. The Indian Navy along with that of Japan, the US and Australia have been having increased interactions through Malabar naval exercise series in both the Indian Ocean and the Indo Pacific.
The QUAD too as a Cooperative block is taking shape, though it is far from becoming a military block and will never be like NATO. Even though India has already inked three foundational agreements with the US, which open up a wide opportunity for cooperation in security, defence, intelligence, and big tech. Interestingly all such agreements had to be modified by the Americans as per dictation of India. All interactions have to be based on EQUALITY as unlike UK, India will never act like the Tabaqui to the Sher Khan of the Jungle Book ( Rudyard Kipling ).
Though Russia has been publicly critical of the Quad, Its foreign minister Sergey Lavrov had last year said that “India is currently an object of the Western countries’ persistent, aggressive and devious policy” while assailing the West for what he described as attempts to “undermine our close partnership and privileged relations.”
However, despite all the hiccups India and Russia, the two countries have been strategic friends and will remain so. Indo Russian defence deals worth $15 billion have been signed in the last three years, as per Victor N Kladov, head of International Cooperation and Regional Policy of ROSTEC State Corporation.
All these deals have happened despite India also buying some critical defence items from USA. Russia has never objected because it knows why India is buying those items. Where as US has been throwing tantrum on Indo Russian deals and of all things has been threatening India with sanctions. The American sanctions in 1998 could hardly make any dent in India’s Foreign Policy then how can the Americans even dream of nudging India in any direction in 2021?
India’s arms imports has dropped by nearly a 33 per cent in the last five years( 2016-20) compared to period 2011-15, due to the strides made by the ATMANIRBHAR policy of the NDA Government led by Shri Narendra Modi. This is as per Stockholm International Peace Research Institute data. In this period, imports from both Russia and USA have come down drastically by 53% and 46 % respectively. Whereas Imports from France increased by whooping 709% mainly due to Rafael and Scorpion deal.
As on date Russia still remains the largest defence supplier accounting for 49% of the total import followed by France and Israel. USA still remains a distant fourth.
So even with growing defence ties between India and the US, New Delhi will always remain closer to Russia. This is primarily because Russia does not hesitate to help out India in its strategic programmes. India was able to come out top in spite of the MTCR restrictions mainly because of help from Russia in the most critical areas. So has been the case with nuclear submarine programme.
It was the Russians’ knowhow and technology help for the India-Russia joint venture product BrahMos that has made the BRAHMOS missile a World beater and India has taken off from that point. Another factor for the continued defence cooperation is also the fact that Russia technology is modern and very latest and are much cheaper than any of the western systems and also comes with no strings attached, unlike an American system.
Finally, Russia will have closer ties with China but because of that it will never weaken its ties with India. This is something which Americans and their camp followers can never understand.
So, even while we keep becoming more ATMANIRBHAR and our military imports will keep coming down, we will still go in for some mega deals With the Russians. These will include cooperation in nuclear submarines, advanced conventional submarines, manned space programmes, AWACS, part replacement of SU30 MKIs, Anti Ballistic Missile Defence System and manufacturing of heavy transport air crafts.
The Indian Air Force (IAF) has made up its mind to go full throttle for TEJAS and the coming AMCA. However till these Indian fighters start making up the numbers, the IAF’s edge in the Region will be maintained by the mighty SU30MKIs and the IAF is mighty proud of these Russian fighters manufactured in India. IAF also knows that it will be only after 2040 when an indigenous fighter will be available for replacing the SU30MKIs. Whereas by 2035 the first of the Sukhoi Squadron will need replacement. The IAF also needs to move towards 54 Squadrons from the present 37 ( 2x Rafael, 2x TEJAS, 15x Sukhois, 6x Jaguars, 3x MiG 29, 3X Mirage and 6x MiG21Bis). So meanwhile IAF will need to go in for import / Make in India of around 8 to 9 Squadrons. These are going to be Russian and French but never American.
India has now nearly become self sufficient in all missiles of various types ( army, navy, airforce and strategic ) and soon all imports in the field will cease.
However, India is still looking for may be a dozen plus P8I Boeing’s, two dozens Chinook helicopters and the same number of MH 60R Naval helicopters. Of Course there will be a few hundred of F404/ F414 General Electric jet engines too till our own Kaveri enters productions.
