Israel – Iran Conflict
by Colonel Krityanand Das
Now that what was awaited has happened, that is retaliatory drone and missile attack on Israel by Iran after Israel’s bombing of Iranian embassy in Damascus, killing two of it’s top commanders and few soldiers.
To what turns this new event will lead to, will decide the fate of the world peace in general and West Asia in particular.
Leaderships of both Israel and Iran aren’t enjoying much confidence at home.
Netanyahu may not win a election if it takes place now or even once the conflict ceases in Gaza. Iran’s entry into existing conflict will add new dimension.
Sanctions have ruined Iranian economy and public in general and women in particular are fed up of long religious bigotic reign of the mad Mullas. Leadership of both countries has to react to save face. If the face saving actions and reactions are less severe in terms of damages and destructions to lives and properties, then world could have a sigh of relief. Friendly countries could play their roles and negotiate peace. Or it could continue like one in Ukraine that hardly hit the headlines any more!
Iran being a non Arab country has always lived with a pretences of leadership of the Muslim Umma, since the Abbasid coup and over throw of Ummaiyad Cliphate in 750 AD. Abbasid made use of the Iranians in getting rid of the Ummaiyad and then showed the Iranians their place that is of Mawali, a derogatory epithet for non Arab converts and were also called Ajam by the Arab masters that is one who speak in a language that isn’t clear, sort of mumble-fumble, almost mute!
Even the Turks who were known to live by selling kids into slavery, were able to rule over entire West Asia, Maghrib and Estern Europe over long 600 years once they converted from Buddhism to Islam. Iranians could never do that. Even the present ruling Mullahs elites with black turbans claim to be of Arab decent.
Ancestors of Ayyatollah Khumaineni was from Barabanki in Uttar Pradesh. His great great grandfather had gone to study at religious seminary at Qom, some 150 years back. And stayed back in Iran only.
Even the higher bureaucracy of the Abbasid were of Indian Buddhist decent from Balkh known as Paramkids. Much to Iranians annoyance.
So the Iranians’ pretence of leading the Muslim Umma is very old. Iran’s attitude of holier than thou and loyal than the king is very natural and hence it opposition to Israel manifest that age old dormant desire!
But it’s doubtful that Arab states will allow Iran to lead the Muslim Umma ever . It’s influence will be limited to few fringe groups of Sunni Islamic extremists groups who do not enjoy support of powerful Arab states and some Shia groups.
The present conflict in Gaza is most likely a China – Iran hand work. It was planned to upset the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor. In this corridor Iran was left out, while its regional rival Saudi Arabia got a large portion of the corridor’s rail route passing throughits territory. China’s Silk Route both on land and in sea would be adversely effected if this Corridor came up.
HAMAS was fooled and has paid heavy price for its foolishness both in terms of loss of lives and damage to properties in entire Gaza stripe.
It now depends on Americans what they want to make out of Iran — another Iraq, Syria or Lybia!
Who all will come to Iran’s help and how far will they go?
Russia is fighting in Ukraine, Chinese economy is going through a bad patch.
It’s election year in USA. Biden chances aren’t bright. He may like to turn Iran into another Iraq and look a hero before the American voters and mend his electoral fortune at the year end.
Israel considers Iran an existential threat. It may use this opportunity to turn Iran into another Iraq with Amercan help.
Netanyahu presently hasn’t much chance to win at the hastings, may be a battered Iran may make his fortune smile at him like Biden’s!
If the Chinese and Russian come to the help of Iran then conflict will escalate in to a war. It will depend on the three powers if they want to add figure 3 after the war(WW-III)!
Hope good senses prevail.
What effect it will have on India?
India presently buys lot of hydrocarbon fuel from Iran. It has good relation with many Arab oil rich states. Both USA and Russia are selling this fuel to India. They will be happy selling more of the same.
India must remain neutral and try resolve the conflict and not let it flare up through its good relation with both USA,Israel and Iran.
Both India and Iran has a civilisational connect and a shared past. Rise of Islam and its advance eastward changed that adversely for ever.
Global South along with India should work to bring an end to this and other conflicts. For they alone will bear the brunt.
It is always the grass that gets trampled whether elephants make love or fight!
