Kursk incursion proves to be a huge strategical mistake for Ukraine
After three weeks of fighting, Ukraine has been unable to expand its initial bridgehead in the Kursk region. For all practical purpose the stalled offensive has been a huge failure.
Though initially surprised, after firmly containing the Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, there has been a surprisingly low-key response from the Russians to rapidly evict the first occupation of Russian territory since World War II.
It all comes down to priorities given by the Russian General Staff. With the bulk of Russian military continuing to pressing its slow paced offensives inside Ukraine, the entire Hitler inspired Ukrainian offensive into the Kursk has gone into a tail spin. It was intended for providing huge traction for Western Media but has flopped miserably.
Kremlin was indeed at first surprised at this audacity but Russians contained the bridgehead first and thereafter are taking their own sweet time to push it back. Meanwhile they continue their drive in all other strategic directions. Ukraine thus has made a huge mistake because now the Ukrainian Forces committed in Kursk cannot be pulled out for defending other regions.
On the other hand President Vladimir Putin doesn’t seem to view the attack — as a grave enough threat to warrant pulling troops from eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, his priority target.
“Putin’s focus is on the collapse of the Ukrainian state, which he believes will automatically render any territorial control irrelevant,” wrote Tatiana Stanovaya, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre.
Months after conflict started in 2022, Putin rightly annexed the Russian speaking region of Ukraine like Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as part of Russian territory, and their full capture has been a top priority. He declared in June that Kyiv must withdraw its forces from parts of those regions it controls as a condition for peace talks, a demand that Zelenskey rejects.
Russia has done all to contain the Ukrainian offensive without drawing units from its own offensive in the Donbas. Nigel Gould-Davies of the International Institute of Strategic Studies, says “Russia currently judges that it can contain the threat on its own soil without compromising its most important goal in Ukraine.”
Even as Ukrainian forces pushed into Kursk on Aug 6, Russian troops continued their advance around the strategic city of Pokrovsk and other parts of the Donetsk area at their own pace.
Russia is very keen on continuing the move toward Pokrovsk and not taking resources away from Pokrovsk to Kursk,” confirmed Nico Lange, senior fellow at the Washington-based Centre for European Policy Analysis.
Unlike Pokrovsk, where Ukrainian forces have built extensive fortifications, other parts of Donetsk still under Ukrainian control are less protected and could be significantly more vulnerable to the Russian onslaught if Pokrovsk falls.
Speaking about Kursk in televised meetings with officials, Putin described the incursion as an attempt by Kyiv to slow the Russian campaign in Donetsk. He said the Russian advance there only has accelerated despite events in Kursk.
To keep Zelenskey off balance, Russia also has launched a steady barrage of long-range strikes on the power grid. An attack on energy facilities was one of the largest and most devastating of the conflict, involving over 200 missiles and drones and causing widespread blackouts. It highlighted loopholes in Ukraine’s air defences that are stretched between protecting front-line troops as well as infrastructure.
Thus totally focused on capturing four Russian speaking regions, Putin has sought to attach little importance to Kyiv’s foray into Kursk.
Though faced with the reality of the occupation of Russia’s territory, the state machine has sought to focus on government efforts to help over 130,000 residents displaced from their homes.
Russian media cast the attack on Kursk as evidence of Kyiv’s aggressive intentions and more proof that Russia was justified in liberating Russian speaking parts of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. Stanovaya noted that while many Kursk residents could be angry at the Kremlin, the overall nationwide sentiment could actually favor the authorities.
“The Ukrainian attack might actually lead to a rallying around the flag and a rise in anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western sentiments,” she said.
Ukraine’s chief military officer, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, making a “ claim “ said his forces control nearly 1,300 square kilometers settlements in the Kursk region, a claim that couldn’t be independently verified.
Unlike the static front lines in Donetsk, Ukrainian units are just roaming in the Kursk region without establishing a lasting presence in many of the settlements they claim.
Observers say Russia meanwhile is just containing the incursion instead of chasing back the Ukrainian forces in Kursk. The aim is to tie up these top line Ukrainian forces so that they cannot be switched to other regions.
Commentators observed that Putin has still not called up more reservists for a counter offensive. It would take a few divisions of troops to fully dislodge the Ukrainian force, estimated at 10,000, that used the region’s dense forests as cover.
Clearly instead of mobilising resources for such a massive operation, Russia for now has focused on containing the Ukrainian advances by sealing roads and targeting Kyiv’s reserves — tactics that have been fully successful as the much touted offensive has peetered out.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has destroyed a few bridges across the Seym River, disrupting logistics for some Russian units in the region and creating conditions for establishing a pocket of control.
Lange predicted Ukrainian troops could use the river to carve out a buffer zone.
By capturing a chunk of Russian territory, Ukraine has just about embarrassed the Kremlin but completely failed to reshape the battlefield. Instead Ukraine finds itself making a cardinal mistake of diverting some of the country’s most capable forces from the east, a gamble which has totally failed for Kyiv.
“This all carries huge risk, particularly if an effort to over-stretch Russian forces results in overstretching the smaller Ukrainian forces,” according to Barry of the IISS.
This attempt to create a foothold in Kursk has further extended the more than 1,000-kilometer front line, adding to the challenges faced by the undermanned and outgunned Ukrainian forces. Defending positions inside Russia would raise serious logistical problems, with the extended supply lines becoming easy targets.
“The Russian system is very hierarchical and stiff, so it always takes them a significant amount of time to adapt to a new situation,” Lange said, “but we will have to see how Ukraine can sustain all this.
So after Napolean and Hitler now it is the turn of Zelenskey to learn the truth !!
