New Logic Being Floated to Entrap India into USA LED Military Bloc
The United States of America is now a declining power but it will not give up easily. So it has created a military block AUKUS to try and dominate the Indo Pacific. It also wants Australia and Japan to form the core of the alliance to defend Taiwan from an attack by China. However the US knows that the Indo-Pacific is enormous, so for any meaningful success of this coalition of they must get support of not only a majority of the strategically situated but totally wary and hesitant countries around the South China Sea / Indo Pacific, ASEAN but also the emerging Super Power—India.
Bases in the Philippines and South Korea could help Washington bring its airpower to bear. Use of logistical facilities in Singapore(it will never agree) would make it easier to operate in the South China Sea. Overflight rights from Southeast Asian countries would allow the US to get long-range bombers stationed at Diego Garcia into the game. Also to get to the fighting with China (with what?) one Australian official said that Canberra would need Indonesia’s “grudging acquiescence” to transit through its archipelagic waters and airspace.
The USA thinks that all these countries fear an expansionist China. All are positioned well to help contain it. Though now all these countries are much wiser and therefore will not get entangled in the brawl between the Western Collation and Beijing.
Therefore the USA is most desperate to somehow get India, the only country which has militarily checked China and shown PLA its place, into its military alliance. India has joined QUAD but will not let it become a military alliance. Even though India and China are militarily facing each other on the Indo Tibetan border. China has forcibly occupied Tibet, a free Country and is also in occupation of parts of Indian territory in Ladhak. However to resolve the problem now India is ready to tackle it itself. India is neither afraid, awed or mesmerized by the Chinese power, it always had the capability and now has the WILL too to tackle the Chinese.
However India will never join the USA led block to take on China. India’s centrality to the rivalry Indo Pacific is clear. After all, it was India which had ensured peace in the region unto 16th Century. The country is once again a major World power and the most dominant power in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, two regions where China will be permitted to trade but will be prevented from “expanding” in a coercive manner. India has experience in dealing with Beijing’s since 1950’s. Earlier China had tried bullying along the contested Line of Control in the Himalayas. In 1967 China had been stunned by a tight “ slap “ at their misbehavior in Nathu LA, which had ensured peace for a long time. Then seething with anger after Doklam and Maldives “ defeats “ China tried Galwan. The military clash killed 20 Indian troops in June 2020 but PLA lost at least40 killed and another 40 as injured. Though till date China has acknowledged only around 8 as killed (four after the incident and four recently). No wonder Chinese President Xi Jinping had to change the Western Theatre Commander around four times in a short span.
As the world’s largest democracy, India is unavoidably too big and too strong to be a mere pawn in any US-China competition that President Joe Biden frames in ideological terms of free nations versus autocracies. As a leader of the developing world, which is again becoming a geopolitical battleground, India exercises great diplomatic influence as well and will soon be giving “Suggestions “ that most will follow willingly.
The Biden administration should be happy that New Delhi has aligned itself with a reborn Quad — alongside Australia, Japan and the US —and its vision of a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” However this is for Cooperation among all and not for coercion against any one.
India is on the move. It is using naval exercises and arms sales to countries such as Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam to deepen its engagement in Southeast Asia in ways that checks Beijing’s designs. Therefore to keep a friendly relationship with India is the most important for the United States in the 21st century.
However India is too big, has a great history and identity as a great civilization, to be attached to someone as a pawn like UK to Uncle Sam !
Western Press should totally refrain from “questioning” (as a Strategy) the present government’s commitment to democratic norms at home. It will backfire badly. India is highly democratic and had flourishing democratic Empires when Europeans were just evolving from tribal Council’s to things bit bigger.
India has no sentimental attachment to the “liberal international order” imposed by the West after looting and devastating the world for 400 years from 1600 onwards. Today India will be totally blunt in calling a spade a spade. Also West should be very clear that India is not dependent on Russian for guns or gas. Even as on date it buys just 2% of oil that Western Europe or even the USA is buying from Russia. Indian stance on Russia’ s conflict with Western supported Ukraine is also very clear.
So how might India react if China attacked Taiwan? Although India will project military power (IAF Sukhois with 800 km range BRAHMOS missiles have a very long range) east of the Malacca Strait, only if there is a direct conflict along the Himalayas, it may just bring to halt all oil shipping to China passing through Indian Ocean to bring a halt to China Taiwan conflict. Though India will never, not even dreams, grant access to the US Navy at its Andaman and Nicobar Islands, in the eastern Bay of Bengal, to facilitate a blockade of such oil supplies. The Indian Navy will itself keep Chinese ships out of the Indian Ocean. The Indian Army could also distract China by turning up the heat in Chinese Occupied Tibet.
India will surely rally diplomatic condemnation of a Taiwan assault in the developing world. India has publicly accused China of “militarization” of the strait.
New Delhi like the rest of the World has stake in the survival of a free Taiwan. After taking Taiwan China may be emboldened to capture more Indian territory in Ladhak or some in Arunachal.This is possible especially if the US and its democratic allies are badly bloodied — by a Taiwan conflict.
Nonetheless India will not cast its lot, militarily or diplomatically, with a pro-Taiwan coalition. Appeals to “common democratic values or norms of nonaggression” (such appeals was certainly missing in 1971 Indo Pak War or when India tested its nuclear weapon in 1998) won’t persuade India to aid AUKUS any more than they have induced it to help Western Supported Ukraine.
Armchair strategists might dream of opening a second front in the Himalayas, but India will not do so, even though China is in no position to cross the LAC in Ladhak without being battered. PLA is more than overmatched, by a fully prepared Indian forces on the Indo Tibetan border.
What India would do in a Taiwan conflict is totally dependent on China’s behavior towards resolving the Indo Tibet border issue and the China Tibet border issue. Bothe the borders need to be negotiated and physically demarcated on ground. Once these two issues are resolved then there will be no conflict between China and India. After all from the days of Mahabharat till 1962 there was hardly any conflict.
