New world order needed : India and China together Cando it
Countries big and small have been settling their disputes through negotiation and on its failing the final decision by force or war, which was continuation of politics by other means. In the War the strong would win but seeds for the next conflict would have been sown. Humanity has long lived in this kind of world politics.
This changed after the Second world war in 1945. This had nothing to do with sudden dawning of Wisdom but due to the remarkable development of technology and military means acquired.
The machine gun the main weapon of World War I, were joined by Tanks and aircraft, as new weapons in WW2 to became the mainstay of War, targeting combatants and civilians alike. Finally appeared the nuclear weapons.
The extreme advancement of such means of warfare made war very terrible. The normal objectives of war are to gain territory, resources and interests led to killing of large numbers of people to achieve them.
The system created by the Victors after the First World War to bring peace, led to the Second World War. After the World War II, again the Victors led by the U.S. created two new ways of dealing with the post-war order: the United Nations system and the free trade system.
Under the U.N. system, the use of force other than for self-defence was prohibited. Even powerful nations were forbidden from invading other nations. Small and medium-sized countries were also guaranteed their existence.
Five “policemen” — the five permanent members of the Security Council – appointed themselves to manage global security. As long as they could cooperate, the U.N. system was not a bad one. Human history took a step away from the law of the jungle.
However this system was basically by the rich for the rich or more plainly speaking, by the whites for the whites !!
The free trade system, was started, outwardly with good intentions, a product of wisdom but with purose of ECONOMIC ENSLAVEMENT of the resource rich militarily weaker Nations. Germany and Japan had flashed their swords to obtain resources but both countries were crushed. The next status quo-breakers emerged to corner resources and markets in the name of Free Trade.
Representatives from the U.S., U.K. and other European countries gathered in the mountains of Bretton Woods to discuss such apparatus for a world-wide free trade like the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Supported by this system, the world market economy expanded for a long time after the war, enabling the post-war reconstruction of Western Europe and Japan.
The post-war order after World War II did constrain war, but also provided the apparatus that brought mankind nearly to extinction through a nuclear war.
The U.N. system tottered along. During the Cold War, when the U.S. and the Soviet Union were at odds with each other, it was difficult for the five “policemen” to cooperate, but they recognized the nuclear age’s threat of “mutually assured destruction” and managed to avoid an all-out war between the two camps.
The attempts by countries to seek regional hegemony were controlled and order was maintained by U.N. forces or coalition forces of willing countries based on U.N. resolutions.
Now comes the dissolution of Soviet Union and the USA behaving like the Sole Super Power of the World. Then came the rise of China which began challenging the control of the Western Powers.
Soon the Status Quo powers found out that they were unable to stop the Economic rise of China, which was also growing rapidly as a military power.
This is the first time in the 77 years since the end of World War II that the USA who thought of itself to be in charge of the world’s security found to its dismay that it was unable to do much to China.
Then began the Russian Ukraine conflict. When the Ukraine conflict began, three surprising things became apparent: First, the military forces of Russia, a military powerhouse, were not well trained. Second the U.S. and Europe, which had been at odds with each other for so long under former U.S. President Donald Trump, came together, and Japan joined them in imposing strict sanctions against Russia.
Third, the rest of the World (the biggest portion) was either indifferent or had sympathies with Russia.
As a result, two fronts are currently being pursued simultaneously. One is the battlefield in Ukraine and the other is the economic front between Russia and the U.S., Europe and Japan. More than either camp, it is Africa and South America which are suffering.
Russia has failed to capture the Ukrainian capital city of Kyiv or has intentionally not done so, because it will be accused of establishing a puppet state. Though it has liberated about 20% of Ukraine’s territory which are Russian Speaking. Both sides realize that their achievements on the battlefield will define their post-war border, and thus they are unable to end the war.
The other front being fought with economic sanctions is no less important. The people of Russia as an giant country want a strong government.
President Putin is a strong leader, but how far will he go under these Western sanctions? The countries sanctioning Russia are also suffering from rising energy and food prices. Europe may scream of hardship and loosen sanctions before Russia does. If that happens, Russia’s aggression will be rewarded, and the joints of the times will truly be dislocated.
Here comes China, sympathetic to Russia, and is providing all hep except a direct military supplies, which in any case is not needed by Russia. In the past, the road to World War II became unstoppable as Japan and Germany moved in unison. If China were to force the unification of Taiwan and seize the Senkaku Islands, the post-World War II order would collapse in its entirety, and perhaps World War III would become inevitable.
Here suddenly a messiah has arisen on the World’s horizon and that is India. The country has advanced economically and technologically and has caught up with most of the so called advanced countries. Economically GDP wise it is at number 5th place but in PPP terms it is already at number 3rd position. Population wise and that too very young, it is the World’s largest. Militarily it is already at number four.
Just about 400 years ago, India had 25% of the World’s GDP and ensured total peace in both the Indian Ocean and large portions of the Indo Pacific. Today it is slowly but surely moving in that direction. Surprisingly the Status Quo Powers have not yet invited India to become a Permanent member of the Security Council.
China as a rising power may want to change the status quo through the use of force, and is sharpening its sword, waiting for an opportunity to use them. The opportunity is the moment when it’s adversaries are less powerful and there is no international intervention. China has already established its superiority over the U.S. and Japan in East Asian waters through its massive military build-up over the past 30 years since the end of the Cold War.
However, in terms of overall military power, including intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched missiles, the U.S. still has an advantage over China. It is essential that China not harbor the illusion that it can win a war now due to its regional superiority over the U.S. and Japan. It is imperative that Japan and the U.S. make urgent efforts to neutralize China’s unilateral dominance in the area of intermediate-range missiles.
Realizing the above, the USA and its allies are looking towards India to join them. However India, which is fully capable of thwarting Chinese moves on its territory or into the Indian Ocean, will not join any military bloc and cannot be under anyone,
As India’s economic and military power grows stronger, will China be able to rebuild a relationship with India and avoid conflict ? They have lived for more than 8000 years of recorded history in peace except the 1962 border conflict. It is now essential for these two Asian Giants to strengthen international solidarity and talk. Ultimately, the challenge is to create a new world order that surpasses that of the World War II era.
