Pamirs : In the Cross Hairs of Chinese Dragon
By
Col Satish Singh Lalotra
” Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary security, deserve neither liberty nor security”….Benjamin Franklin.
The world around us from ages have been in a state of continuous flux heaving around in multiple directions under the sway of regional pulls and pressures by ever changing dynamics of power play.
Seldom does the world witness a watershed in the its recent history which bears a long term effect on its people and polity as has the year of 1991 which saw the failure of August coup engineered by the Soviet government and its military when it tried to overthrow president Mikhail Gorbachev and stop the so called “Parade of Sovereignties ” leading to individual Soviet republics proclaiming independence.
This break up of USSR saw a tectonic shift in the world power play leading to almost rise of a unipolar world as also rise of regional powers in the form of China ever ready to cross the Rubicon and enter super power bloc.
In the last decade or so PRC/People’s republic of China has really galvanized its military, economic /industrial might to shed the popular myth of an Asian Tiger and catapulted itself into a role commensurate with its might i.e a super power.
This tag of super power for china has been ringing ominous bells for its neighbours for quite a long time now who are under constant threat of coercion under the garb of territorial incursions /cartographic aggressions, trade barriers etc. With India as its present victim, still reeling under the above mentioned strong arm tactics of China, the latest to Fall under the dragnet of Chinese territorial ambitions is Tajikistan a relatively poor cousin amongst its other peers in the highly volatile region of Central Asia.
At the center of storm is the highly strategic lynch pin of central Asia, the “Pamir mountains” which have now become the cynosure of Chinese insatiable appetite for land grab. More about it later. The Pamirs are a mountain range between central Asia and East Asia, at the junction of the Himalayas, with the Tien Shan, Karakorums, Kuen lun, Hindu kush and Hinduraj ranges.
The Pamir mountains are amongst the world’s highest mountains. They lie mostly in the Gorno-Badakshan province of Tajikistan. To the north they join the Tien shan mountains along the Alay valley of Kyrgyzstan and to the south they border the Hindkush mountains along the Afghanistan -Wakhan corridor. To the east they extend to the ranges that includes China’s Kongur Tagh. Historically Pamirs were considered a strategic trade route between Kasghar and Kokund in the northern silk route.
Pamir mountains have had a major role to play in the Tajikistan civil war of the 20 th century. Because of Soviet past, Tajikistan as with other central Asian countries remained under the Russian sphere of influence after 1991. But the last decade and a half the rising power of China has punched a hole in the cosy relationship of theirs, which has much more deeper pockets.
China which shares the international border with dozen of its neighbours including Tajikistan has ramped up investments in central Asia. Being a poor muslim country though endowed with a bountiful of natural resources, Tajikistan fell to the famous Chinese game plan of “Land for debt swap “formula.
Tajikistan, heavily debited to the PRC/People’s republic of China had no other option on its bargaining table but to go for this costly arrangement to off set its heavy debt. As part of the above ‘Land for debt swap’ formula china has been advancing with menacing proportions in the central Asian region to include Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan. Tajikistan has unfortunately bargained more than its self pride could accommodate in this ‘Land for debt swap formula.”
Besides allowing china to open up a military base in its country, Tajikistan signed an agreement in 2011 whereby it handed over more than 1158 Square kilometers of area of land in the Pamir mountains to china in return for debt forgiveness. Unfortunately this was the cardinal mistake Tajikistan committed with the Chinese who are known worldwide for their land grabbing tactics. Tajikistan in fact should have drawn lessons from its neighbouring countries like Pakistan which surrendered the valuable Shaksgam valley (6993 Sq Kms) of J&K in 1963 to china in return for favours like construction of KKH/Karakorum highway and acting as a bulwark against India. In fact China applied the same tactics of cartographic aggression against Pakistan showing in their maps, the Trans Shaskgam tract as part of its area.
It was only after Pakistan voted to grant China a seat in the UN that Chinese agreed to withdraw their disputed maps in 1962. Now with the ‘Land for debt swap” becoming a dead Albatross hanging around the neck of Tajikistan, it has been presented with a faith accompli having much more serious ramifications for its existence.
Just how much debt has been waived off by China is matter of conjecture, but land for debt formula has been a standard pattern of China when it comes to dealing with countries in many parts of the world some even thousands of kilometers away from its shores.
The infamous “Nine dash line” formula adopted by China in the south china sea is a pointer in this direction where in after helping countries like Philippines, Singapore etc it has slowly advanced its case of extending its national boundaries by leaps and bounds and started claiming islands like Paracel and Spartly, the Macclesfield bank and the Scaraborough shoal.
With the recent pronouncement of a Chinese historian Cho yao Lu saying that entire Pamir mountains in Tajikistan belonged to china and should be returned to them, has to be viewed from the prism of Land for debt swap formula gaining menacing proportions.
As per this Chinese historian after the formation of new china state in 1911, the territories which were taken by other countries from them in the past due to world pressure ought to be returned back to them. One of these regions is the contentious Pamir region, which Tajikistan ought to comply with since it was outside Chinese influence for about 128 years. As if this was not enough Tajikistan has allowed certain Chinese companies to mine its gold deposits in the northern part of its area.
In fact this is a classic case of Chinese geopolitical manoeuvring where in the garb of developing a port or airfield and even a developmental project, used as a wedge to take a more muscular approach in the country. But what rattles more Tajikistan as of now is the restive population of Pamir mountains i.e. the Pamiris who would be up in arms against the Chinese for their unwanted intrusion.
With Tajikistan barely out of an internecine civil war which nearly destroyed it, it can’t afford to antagonize its natives once more at the altar of its misplaced national priorities. China in fact has gone quite far ahead in its sinister game plan and also build a mighty military base Kyzylrabot located about 12 to 14 kms from the Tajik border and 30 kms from the Tajik-China border in Gorno-Badakshan province overlooking a crucial entry point from China into central Asia.
This new army base shows the presence of helicopters and adequate space for a battalion sized force supported by armed vehicles etc. These facts themselves highlight the nexus between the BRI/Belt road initiative programme and its strategic implications along with more obvious economic objective. This Kyzylrabot Chinese base near the Wakhan corridor which is a thin strip of Afghan land sandwiched between Tajikistan and Gigit Baltistan /GB of POK has ominous signals for India too.
But in general what are the strategic implications for India in a case like this where Tajikistan is slowly bowing to the pressure of Chinese hegemony of claiming Pamirs as their own? There are many. India in fact has done a sizable amount of investment in Tajikistan by way of building hospitals and thereafter an airfield at Farkhor.
In 1996 -97 India had negotiations with the host country to start using this airbase to transport supplies to Afghan nationals as also to service their helicopters and gather intelligence. India had built a field hospital at Farkhor which was used for treating the Northern alliance fighters of Ahmed shah Masood the lion of Panjsheer valley. He was in fact brought as a wounded patient from the battlefield and treated here. Our regular ARC /Aviation research center flights operate from this airbase.
In fact this is India’s first foot hold in central Asia and would give range and depth to the Indian military in seeking a larger role in the Indian subcontinent.
With the latest standoff with China at the LAC, Farkhor airbase can in fact act as a lynch pin to jump start offensive operations from an altogether new direction. Another airbase known as Ayani airbase( Gissar air base ) in Tajikistan just 10 kms west from Dushanbe their capital is the one where India has spent again a whooping US$ 70 Million to renovate, the runway has been extended to 3200 meters and state of the art navigational and air defence equipment has been installed.
But its usage is stuck due to an approval from the CSTO/Collective security treaty organization a regional military alliance /power bloc consisting of Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan. Notwithstanding the above, Farkhor airbase can still act as a thorn in the flesh of Pakistan where our air power can be brought to bear upon them in a matter of minutes.
But unfortunately there are no fighters stationed at Farkhor from Indian side as of now. With the standoff still on at the LAC, it stands to logic that India maintain a robust presence in Tajikistan, who is accused of fomenting trouble by China in their restive Muslim dominated Uighur province.
On the lines of QUAD/ Quadilateral security dialogue an informal forum between US, Japan, Australia and India to ring fence China in the south China sea and else where, India should try cementing more robust relations with CSTO nations to help realize India’s security concerns in its extreme north.
Though as of now the idea seems a far fetched one, but the way the things are hurtling down side for Tajikistan, it may soon end up as an enemy country for China acting as a bright spot for India to befriend it with a renewed vigour and perspective.
