Russia – India Friendship Unshakeable
Russia and India are both unshakable friends. Both the countries will not allow themselves to be dictated to by another country on issues that are of Prime interest, and that includes the Indo-Russia arms trade.
US pursuing its national interests may be having grave reservations over India procuring S-400 missiles from Russia, China too has objections to Moscow supplying arms to New Delhi. However both the countries must realize that they can do nothing to prevent it. Further any action taken to prevent the procurement / supply will not only fail but harm the interests of USA / China alike. Any action will be totally counterproductive. Indo Russian relationship is unshakeable.
Neither India nor Russia can be dictated to even by the likes of USA and China or even combined. Chinese have probably realized this and thus even though they are not happy with Russia supplying S400 to India, they are less overt in their protest and also less public. They also know that trying to pressure Russia will be counterproductive.
However the thick headed Americans are not realizing the issue of counterproductivity, especially the US Congress. New Delhi is just going ahead with the procurement of the S-400 Triumf air defence missile system in spite of all the public “ threats “ and tantrums being demonstrated by the American administration and the American Congress. The US, continues to remain undecided over waiving its own “sanctions” for India under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). India cares two hoots for this “ self styled” Law which USA brandished as “ International Law.”
The $5.2 billion S-400 deal between India and Russia has become a major cause of consternation within Washington. The US is fully aware of the fact that the deal was finalised before CAATSA came into being in 2017 under the former Donald Trump administration. But the Joe Biden administration has also raised the issue of India buying S-400 missiles from Russia, and hinted at possible sanctions during the visit of US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin to India in March. The US is also aware that India brooks no interference in its bilateral affairs from any third party. Also India decides Arms purchases after careful consideration and it is a matter of national security.
India has already finalized the S400 deal and going ahead with it. Clearly, the US wants to prevent all Russian arms Sell to anybody. The US and Russia are locked in a serious long-term confrontation and there’s no let up to this confrontation in the foreseeable future. The US will try to prevent any country buying Arms from Russia very, very hard.
However it is time that US realized its own limitations, especially with respect to India.
India, As it had done in 1998 nuclear blast, is standing up to pressure of the US and if the US believes it has other important interests with India, as a face saving it must issue a waiver on its own ( No one is going to ask for it ).
India and Russia have recently announced that they are going to establish a ‘2+2’ dialogue between their respective foreign and defence ministries for the first time ever. This is required in the Changing geopolitical environment.There are interests which have to be managed well.
India and Russia will pursue their bilateral relationship, which is of high value for both Delhi and Moscow, in this more complex and international environment. Having a more structured relationship, having a relationship that brings foreign ministers and defence ministers of the two countries together on a regular basis is something of true significance.
The 2+2 dialogue between India and Russia comes at a time when Moscow’s ties with Beijing are growing, as are New Delhi’s ties with Washington, while the US-Russia and US-China relationships are strained, as is India’s with China.
Russia’s relations with India should not be defined or guided by Russia’s relations with China and America. By the same token, India’s relationship with Russia should not be shaped according to India’s relations with China and America. Those two powers (the US and China) which have very different policies towards India and Russia are very important factors, but they should not be the principal defining factors as far as Indo Russian relationship is concerned.
Despite the major stand-off at the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh between the Indian and Chinese armies that began in April-May 2020, Moscow was able to bring together New Delhi and Beijing for the trilateral Russia-India-China (RIC) dialogue and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meet. This was seen by many as Russia’s way of mediating between India and China, a thought that Moscow rejected.
it’s also important from the Russian perspective to engage with China in a friendly way, so that China does not dominate the great continent of Eurasia. What Russia is doing, has been doing and will continue to do is facilitating that dialogue, using various means… Russia is urging and making it easier for India and China to engage in the RIC dialogue.
India is also a part of the ‘Quad’ grouping that also consists of the US, Japan and Australia, and playing a key role under the Indo-Pacific strategic construct. The Quad is seen by many in Moscow as an instrument that the United States is using primarily to contain China, and to a certain degree, Indian and American interests are close in some respects regarding China. The rapprochement between India and the US insecurity issues is natural.
Thus there is also the challenge for India to manage its two friends — US and Russia — who are not friends with each other, just like Russia has to manage India and China, who are not friends with each other.
