Significance Of Trilateral Chabahar Connectivity And India – Central Asia Relations
Dated : 31 Dec 2020 (IST)
The trilateral initiative taken by India, Iran and Uzbekistan over the Chabahar port is a move in the right direction having immense geopolitical and geo-economic implication for peace and security in Central Asia.
By joining Chabahar initiative, Uzbekistan has demonstrated that its independent foreign policy is free from Chinese interference. Quite soon even other Central Asian countries are likely to follow Uzbekistan’s move to join the Chabahar project as well.
India has an important role in Central Asia which will provide impetus to the emergence of a new cooperative geopolitical order in Central Asia. India’s constructive engagement with Central Asian countries will be based on equity and cooperative development. The Chabahar port will ensure further connectivity and provide a platform to other Central Asian countries to boost their existing partnership with India.
One major advantage for Central Asian countries by joining the Chabahar connectivity project is that it will not only end their isolation in terms of access to sea and through Chabahar they can also join the emerging Indo-Pacific market.
With this kind of connectivity, these Central Asian countries will have the opportunity to diversify their trade relations with Indo-Pacific countries.
This in turn will help them to have greater bargaining capability with both Russia and China. Then they do not have to rely on either Beijing or Moscow for formulating their external relations.
Another major geopolitical implication of this connectivity is that it will help in contributing a new cooperative geopolitical order in Central Asia. With growing Indian engagement through Chabahar, these five countries can change the geopolitics of this region. They will have a new cooperative geopolitical order instead of them being pawns in Russia China competition. The Kyrgyz regime change in October 2020 was certainly a Chinese initiative not liked by Russia.
Thus the trilateral Chabahar initiative augurs well for the economic development of India-Iran -Uzbekistan along with Afghanistan. It will make Afghanistan a hub of connectivity projects which can bring an enormous amount of economic development to this trouble torn country. It will also help Uzbekistan to boost its energy exports, particularly gas through the Chabahar port to India. The Uzbek economy which is suffering will also get a boost.
Uzbekistan is the largest country in Central Asia in terms of population and it occupies a vital position in the geopolitical map. At the same time, a growing market along with connectivity with other Central Asian countries will give an upper hand to Uzbekistan in the Central Asian economy.
Over the last couple of years, Uzbekistan is showing keenness to forge a greater economic partnership with India in different sectors like pharmaceuticals, health, information technology, etc.
In the Joint Declaration of the Virtual Summit which took place on December 11, 2020, both India-Uzbekistan also agreed to: “work towards an early conclusion of Bilateral Investment Treaty which shall facilitate investment promotion and protection for further improvement of trade and economic cooperation.”
Iran too is facing growing isolation at the international level particularly from the Western countries. As a contrast, India is emerging as a major global power aiming at boosting connectivity for facilitating trade and commerce. Here lies the significance of Chabahar Port which acts as a meeting point for these three countries.
China is trying to replace Russia as the dominant player in this region and so the Central Asian countries are apprehensive of Chinese moves. The growing public unrest in Kyrgyzstan in February 2020 against China is an indicator in this regard. Even Kazakhstan which used to consider itself as a major trade partner of China is expressing concerns over Chinese actions.
China unveiled its OBOR project in Astana, the capital city of Kazakhstan in 2013. In Tajikistan, in the name of protecting the border, Chinese soldiers are now manning border posts in the Gorono Badakshan region.
The movement of Chinese soldiers in the name of protecting OBOR corridor is also raising lot of concerns in Central Asia as reported repeatedly. Similarly, though the China- Kyrgyzstan- Uzbekistan transportation corridor opened recently, there are apprehensions over Chinese moves in Uzbekistan.
One major issue that raises concerns in Central Asia is that whether the OBOR strategy is putting them in a disadvantageous situation? For instance, a term often synonymous with China’s OBOR strategy is ‘debt trap diplomacy’ which is also applicable to Central Asia.
In the name of bilateral projects and foreign investments, Chinese banks are taking over the Central Asian economy which will put them in a difficult situation in the longer run.
The decision of Uzbekistan to join the Chabahar project came during the virtual meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev on December 11, 2020. During the virtual summit, the Uzbek side expressed its keenness to participate in the Chabahar port. India on the other hand “welcomed” the decision of Uzbekistan to join the project. Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his address also emphasised on the “development partnership with Uzbekistan”.
It may also be recalled here that the “Joint Statement of the 2nd meeting of the India-Central Asia Dialogue” which took place through a virtual mode on October 28 has also discussed at length the issue of connectivity.
At the said meeting, the Joint Statement “appreciated India’s efforts to modernise the infrastructure of the Chabahar port in Iran, which could become an important link in trade and transport communications between the markets of Central and South Asia.”
In the same meeting, India also offered “one billion dollars” in assistance to Central Asian countries.
One may underline here that the first step in this direction of trilateral cooperation was made when officials of India, Iran and Uzbekistan discussed the modalities of collaboration at Chabahar.
The recent opening of Iran-Afghanistan rail line connectivity (Khaf- Herat rail line, which will be subsequently linked to Chabahar as mooted) and the same, if it can be connected with the proposed Uzbekistan-Iran rail linkages will further boost connectivity with Central Asia.
In fact, way back in 2019, Uzbekistan also expressed India’s participation in proposed Afghanistan- Uzbekistan rail link project.
Chabahar has also been exempted from sanctions by the US administration, the new Biden administration may also continue the Trump administration’s policy.
In case USA decides something else then it may become a big looser as India will continue to follow its own policy regardless of the Americans.
USA must remember that In a strategic context by getting an upper hand in the Chabahar port, India can also checkmate aggressive Chinese moves. As has been observed by converting Gwadar port into a naval base from a trading one to expand its OBOR strategy, China is posing a strong challenge to peace and security of both South and Central Asia. Even Iran has been hostile to China’s expansionist tendencies historically.
