Tensions rising over Indus Waters Treaty
Could focus on climate ease water woes between Pakistan and India?
The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty was mediated by the World Bank. The treaty divided the Indus River and its tributaries between the two neighbours so as to regulate the sharing of water. The treaty withstood standoffs, skirmishes and even wars as for so many years, India was not using its share of water because of lack of storage space, instead letting it flow to Pakistan.
However from 1980s, India began planning for both irrigation and generation of power through hydro electricity. This needed construction of dams over Indus River and its tributaries, all well within its share of the Treaty. Around 1990s the diplomatic relations between the two foes began to worsen due to tensions over the Pakistan sponsored terrorism in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. Simultaneously the feud over water sharing and supplies began to intensify.
While India has dozens of hydropower projects in the Indus Basin currently operational or under construction, the ongoing water dispute centres around Pakistan’s opposition to India’s 330 megawatt (MW) Kishanganga project on the Jhelum river and the 850 MW Ratle project on the Chenab river.
Pakistan went for resolution at the Court of Arbitration in The Hague over its concerns with the two projects, which is not acceptable to India under the treaty. Instead India has asked its neighbour to enter into bilateral negotiations for any negotiation to modify the Indus Waters Treaty. Now onwards India will not permit any third party from intervening in the dispute.
Whereas Pakistan says that under the current terms of the treaty, the two countries can resolve disputes either through a neutral expert appointed by the World Bank, or at the Court of Arbitration. India will not permit such things any more because the World Bank has no role in a treaty between two Sovereign nations. Also gone are the days when the world Bank or any country can dictate terms to India.
Pakistan has taken the latter route because it is concerned that some of India’s planned and commissioned hydropower dam will reduce flows that feed at least 80% of its irrigated agriculture.
India, however, made it clear that the way it is designing and constructing the hydroelectric plants totally as permitted under the terms of the treaty.
Pakistan is unlikely to reopen the agreement with India bilaterally because, as the smaller nation, it believes the involvement of international institutions strengths its position. Though by now it must have seen by Pakistan that even power international institutions cannot poke their nose in things bilateral involving India and another country.
Yet many Pakistani academics think the agreement should be reviewed to factor in climate change impacts for the first time. For example, Daanish Mustafa, a professor of critical geography at King’s College London, said that doing so could ultimately benefit Pakistan, as India would be expected to take warming impacts into consideration when designing hydropower projects and making decisions about water.
A 2019 study in the journal Nature by Pakistani and Italian researchers noted that climate change was “quickly eroding trust” between the two nations and that the treaty “lacks guidelines… (on) issues related to climate change and basin sustainability”.
However, Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, an environmental and development analyst based in Islamabad, said increasingly worrying climate change pressures are currently “the best instrument available for ensuring water cooperation and regional stability”.
Rather than “playing as victims of climate change”, the two nations should work together to create policies that work for both, he said, adding that the treaty should be updated to cover climate-related concerns from melting glaciers to more intense rainfall.
Last month, proceedings Pakistan had sought to resolve the disagreements over water started at the Court of Arbitration. Pakistan is concerned about two Indian hydropower projects that it says will affect water flows on the Jhelum river and one of its tributaries, and water storage on the Chenab river.
India just ignored the Court of Arbitration as it has no locus standing in the case. Just two days before the proceedings in The Hague began, New Delhi sent a notice to Islamabad asking it to agree to modify the Indus Waters Treaty within 90 days to guarantee that disputes would be handled between the two nations without any outside interference.
Neither nation can pull out of the treaty unilaterally as there is no exit clause, says a Paki expert who said the countries “must agree over practical solutions”. Pakistan’s Institute of Policy Studies said in 2017 that the Indus Waters Treaty now needs to be considered in light of other international agreements such as the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming, which Pakistan and India have both signed.
However if India walks out of the treaty unilaterally then who will prevent it ? Is Pakistan in a position to go to War.In case it does so then it will be the right excuse for India to liberate Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.
However renegotiation — or at least tweaking the treaty — may be as important for Pakistan as India, environmental experts say, as a dam-building push in both countries, rising water demand from growing populations and faster swings between drought and floods make water rights and access an ever-bigger worry.
“There is very little in the treaty for the best possible use of the water resources of the river system, especially when we are in an era of climate change,” said Ashok Swain, a professor at Sweden’s Uppsala University and UN cultural agency UNESCO’s chair of international water cooperation.
