The American President, The American Legislature And The American Administration Need To Re Understand India
By
Colonel Awadhesh Kumar
Today India’s Foreign Policy is being prepared by viewing the World Affairs through Prisms based in New Delhi. India no more catches cold because some one sneezes in Washington or Beijing. As on date Indian Economy may have slowed down but then so has the economy of the entire World. Here again, relatively speaking, the growth in Indian Economy is still ahead of the others with tremendous growth potential.
Pakistan was created knowingly by the British as continuation of their Great Game. At that time even the Americans had tried to jump on the band wagon by trying their level best to befuddle the thinking of Maharaja Hari Singh. They did not succeed but Pandit Nehru again handed over the ball for further manipulation by taking the Kashmir issue to UNO.
Since 1947, the USA has viewed India only through India Pakistan equation. President like that wretched Water Gate Nixon, had somehow developed the perception that if he gave enough aid to India then it will become an American camp follower.
On the other hand Soviet Union had never expected that a Country like India would ever become a Camp follower of any Block. Therefore they had remained happy by the fact that India had not joined CENTO or any such Western sponsored Organisations.
They backed India wherever required. However after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russians had remained a bit confused towards their relationship with India and New Delhi had to navigate the World Affairs on its own strength.
Sensing opportunity, Pakistan with indirect support of its backers first started and then escalated its support to terrorism in Kashmir.
Then there was a economic crisis which was handled deftly by Shri Narshimha Rao, who also laid down the foundation for the future economic development. Finally came the NUCLEAR BLAST which cleared most of the cow webs related to India’s foreign policy and security strategies.
The Kargil episode further strengthened it. However the lost decade of 2004 to 2014 again created contradictory perceptions in the minds of those who manipulate International Order.
Last week a second high-level 2+2 ministerial dialogue took place between USA and India, this time in Washington. Many a issues have been talked about and Smoother cooperation is expected in the field of defence manufacturing, in science and technology and in the affairs of United Nations efforts in world peacekeeping.
However it will be naïve on the part of the Americans to expect India to just start following the USA like a Pooch …..the brexit UK.
For example by defence manufacturing, Americans may already be salivating regarding manufacturing of that obsolete F21 in India, where as Indians may be thinking of establishing a base for complete overhaul / repair of Boeing P8 I, C17 s and General Electrics 404/ 414 engines. This is the kind of perceptional difference between the two which will certainly disliked by the Washington policy makers.
India will neither fall for the obsolete F21 nor for the shiny toy F35 as they do not fit in our scheme of things. What we will do is pick and choose and as friends USA should have no objections, as we will be paying for whatever we want to buy.
Even in the field of realpolitik, India will refuse to become any counterweight to China in Asia at the bidding of the Americans. We will ignore China incase it refuses to cooperate with India in various fields based on equality and will stand Up to it if it tries any coercion.
India will continue on the path of growth, becoming more prosperous and militarily capable but on our own terms. That vision of the future seems increasingly clear and no force can stop it. As a country It has taken USA 250 years to reach where it has.
Whereas from 1747 to 1947 India had been systematically looted and devoid of its wealth, till its GDP got reduced from 45% of the worlds GDP to just about 3%. Though by 2047, India should again be crossing the 25% of World’s GDP.
Today we are already the third largest economy in PPP terms (the correct way of measuring any Economy). The sporadic political or social outbursts against forward movement within the country are nothing to be afraid of. They act as pressure release valves in a democracy and also at times as Course correctors.
From 2014 to 2019, Prime Minister Modi’s and his Cabinet dwelt on major fault points like black money and tax collection. Naturally it slowed down the economy as the market was suddenly devoid of old methodologies. Now it is slowly picking up. However Multinational Companies must not expect that Indian market-opening reforms will be done to ease their way of trading.
We have had enough of EAST INDIA COMPANY, so reforms will take place to develop the Indian market on our own terms and for our own benefits but with full cooperation with our neighbours and also others, based on mutual understanding. Of course there will be increased tariffs and trade restrictions for those who want to dictate terms to India.
So even though President Donald Trump wishes for strategic partnership with India, unless the issues are resolved based on equality and mutual understanding and benefits, it will keep on dragging. Negotiations on tariff disputes will remain unresolved and there will be a lot of differences on exchange of services, trade in agriculture goods, and protection of intellectual property and data collection. Imagine the stupidity involved when someone tries to lay claim on intellectual property rights on medicinal products made out of Neem and turmeric.
Next comes the bleeding hearts and so called Liberal Americans. Instead of focusing on improving the Black and White relations, empowering the original Americans that is the Red Indians, looking after the Mexican immigrants and Hispanics, within their own country, they display the proclivity to lecture India over Kashmir and the National Citizenship Register etc. This will be simply not tolerated by India of today …..all trade negotiations can go to hell as far as we care.
In case Democrats can feel that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s display of public support for President Donald Trump coming election was uncalled for then they should also refrain from poking their nose in Indian affairs.
A report says many US democrats otherwise supportive of India have been outraged, then so are we with the likes of Pramila Jayapal and her broods in the American Congress.
Coming to China, in spite of all the charges which United States has brought up against it real and imaginary, Trump has still gone ahead and signed a trade deal for export of nearly $ 200 billion worth goods to China. Naturally India too will like to double its export to China and so in a way USA and India are competitors when it comes to trade with China.
However India has not jumped and joined RCEP in the South East Asian Region, it has clearly told everyone including China that terms and conditions for joining RCEP are not conducive to India. It will reconsider when things improve. Japan and other countries are already appreciating India’s views on the subject.
So how does USA expect India to blindly accept trade deals with the USA. The US- Chinese deal is a clear indicator that USA will always keep its own interest first and so will India.
USA has been hoping for quite sometime that India will bail it out in the Indo Pacific by confronting China. Both India and China are expanding their geopolitical influence and since Chinese have been venturing into the Indian Ocean for quite sometime, inevitably India has now started venturing into the Pacific.
In the Himalayas both sides had a showdown at Dokalam, where China finally backed down. Now both will be bumping against each other increasingly in both the Indian Ocean Region and the Indo Pacific Region.
The USA has been operating in the Indo Pacific only since say last hundred years. In contrast both China and India have been operating in the area since the recorded history of both the countries.
Hindu temples did not come up in Cambodia and Sumatra overnight and Buddhism did not reach the Koreans as a flotsam. Korea even has a historical link with Ayodhya ….the birthplace of Ram.
However there are no records of any confrontation between the two Civilizations in the Indo Pacific or the Indian Ocean. Both had traded peacefully then and so they can and will do so even now. India and China should come to a workable solution and protect each others interests.
US has been protecting Pakistan ever since the beginning of the Cold war as part of the GREAT GAME. Even today the US is seeking a peace deal with the Taliban through Pakistan in order to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan.
However India perforce will have to oppose it because we cannot afford to let Pakistan get in side Afghanistan and disrupt the existing Government friendly to India.
It will be prudent for the USA to gradually start withdrawing from Afghanistan without involving Pakistan. Both India and the Afghan Government will work out a solution on their own, USA need not worry either for Afghanistan or for Kashmir.
USA has also irked India no end by talk of CAATSA with respect to purchase of S400 Missile System from Russia. Till now India has just ignored it politely and has openly gone ahead with the purchase.
Similarly India is not going to waste its strategic investment in Chabahar Port of Iran based on the whims and fancy of USA. India will keep pursuing its strategic relationship with Iran.
Presently India has indeed reduced its oil import from Iran but it is not just because of threat of American sanctions. When required India will import as it pleases.
Washington by now should be fully aware that India will not become member of any regional security umbrella and the clear example is the Quad where USA wanted to push an anti Chinese agenda which was just clean bowled by the Indians.
Also India has refused to commit its resources to fight the War against the Islamic States as being done by USA. India is not at war with Islam but is fighting a war against terrorists and their supporters.
So in spite of all the shared values of democracy, freedom of speech and human rights both side have to work out a workable relationship based on equality and reciprocal benefits.
