Turkey on verge of conflict with West
A severe political crisis is emerging between Ankara and the West in light of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to expel ten ambassadors representing Western countries, including the US. Experts believe that Erdogan will not go far but his move is likely to have consequences.
The countries whose envoys are expected to be expelled from Turkey are in no hurry to take drastic steps. In the meantime, Erdogan’s domestic opponents are wasting no time castigating him.
Leader of the Republican People’s Party Kemal Kilicdaroglu attributed the envoy expulsion scandal to Erdogan’s desire to justify the government’s mistakes that had led to a difficult economic situation in the country.
Associate Professor at Moscow State University’s Institute of Asian and African Studies Pavel Shlykov assumed that the conflict between Erdogan and the West will eventually end in agreements one way or another. “I don’t think that things are headed towards a large-scale confrontation.
Turkey’s relations with Western allies have not been the best for a while and Erdogan has allowed himself to use aggressive rhetoric against them on numerous occasions. However, Turkey in many ways is dependent on its European partners economically, the dependence is clear from the levels of trade and direct European investment. This is why the country is hardly ready to fall out with the EU, let alone to cut ties,” the expert pointed out.
According to Shlykov, Erdogan’s statement was targeted at the Turkish audience as the rating of the president and the ruling Justice and Development Party has been on a downward trend in recent years. “It causes strong concern among the party’s members and encourages its opponents. They anticipate that the ruling party will perform poorly at the next election and a coalition government will need to be formed.
In such a situation, Erdogan seems to see no reason to refrain from taking advantage of overseas criticism of human rights violations in order to unite his supporters,” the analyst noted.
Director of the Russian State Humanitarian University’s International Russian-Turkish Center Alexander Vasilyev is of the same opinion.
He told Vedomosti that Erdogan “is losing support amid preparations for the 2023 presidential election” and pointed out that in a similar situation in 2015, Erdogan chose to flare up tensions with Russia. “And now, the Turkish leaders seeks to make voters see that he has the courage to challenge the US, too,” the expert said.
