Ukraine Crisis : Is it a red herring for global Chinese hegemony?
“When written in Chinese the word ‘crisis’ is composed of two characters. One represents danger and the other represents opportunity”—John F.Kennedy
By Col Satish Singh Lalotra
World over constant churning of ideas translating into result oriented action has been a gospel truth leading to often change of national boundaries mostly at the cost of great human misery and suffering. Certain world famous human civilizations despite being down the passage of time thousands of years, have not jettisoned their core values and national aspirations. Chinese are one such section of world population who have very adroitly followed their master strategician ‘Sun Tzu’s teachings as enunciated in his master treatise ‘The art of war”. It is as if the top hierarchy of CCP (Chinese communist party) cadres keep a pocket book of ‘SunTzu” and his teachings in their breast pocket to regularly consult for course correction in world affairs. Though the classical treatise on warfare has 10 principles uponwhich hinges his entire stratagem, it has been seen often that the Chinese have deftly used only a few of them to do their bidding the world over often meeting their stated aims.
The time tested tenet of ‘Sun Tzu’ which the Chinese have very often flogged to its hilt to meet their Geo-political aspirations is based on twin aspects i.e. ‘In chaos lies opportunity & ‘Timing is essential”. To a discerning reader of world events, connecting the dots to draw a bigger picture of Chinese hegemony the world over is fairly simple by making use of the template of ‘Art of war” of ‘Sun Tzu’. More about it later in this write up. The latest event which is catching the world media by its horns is the fast evolving Ukrainian crisis so reminiscent of ‘Cuban missile crises/Bay of pigs, U-2 incident all combined into a heady cocktail sure enough to send the two opposing powers of the world over the brink. The US,the prime mover of Geo-political upheavals shaping up on our planet has been attempting to send very loud and clear messages to China not to cross the Rubicon while it grapples with its main rival,Russia over Ukraine. It is trying to tell Beijing not to try any adventure on Taiwan as Washington keeps a sharp focus on the fast evolving situation by the hour in that island country.
The specific need to convey this veiled warning to China could be seen in the light of Beijing’s proclivity to use the world distractions of major nature to its own advantage as time to go after its own strategic objectives.This is what China had done while launching the 1962 border war with India. Reports emanating from reliable sources say that the US has placed two of its aircraft carrier groups –‘USS Carl Vinson’ and ‘USS Abraham Lincoln’ in patrolling operations in the Taiwan strait,the 180 kilometers stretch of sea with another aircraft carrier “USS Ronal Regan’ in Japan.Such a massive concentration of fire power is certainly unusual and is a definite signaling to China not to engage in politico-military brinkmanshipfrom where it may be difficult to retrieve one’s honour with dignity. The need to keep China quiet at this time is best understood by looking at the development all along the Ukraine-Russia border which can erupt in an inferno any moment to the consternation of this entire world.
The Russian troops build up has sparked fears of an impending invasion, with another major factor of a very narrow window of a successful operation for Ukraine getting further narrower by the day dictated by the vagaries of the weather.The end of winters and melting of snow in the region is characterized by slushy grounds all over which in the past has made life difficult for the armies of many countries deployed in that area of the world.In fact for Putin if he doesn’t march into Ukraine very soon he may have to wait for further more months to do his bidding.On the other hand if Putin bites the proverbial bullet so soon the US would rather prefer not to have to confront military action from China in the Indo-Pacific as well. It seems China is making the most of the US- Ukraine-Russia standoff. On 27th January 2022 Russia told US was not clearly willing to address the main security concerns of theirs, but at the same time kept the doors of dialogue open. Kremlin spokesman Dimtry Peskov said in Moscow that they will not rush into drawing conclusions after Washington finally responded to Russian proposals for redrawing of post-cold war security arrangements in Europe.This nuanced Kremlin reaction made it clear that Russia was not rejecting the US&NATO responses out of hand or closing the doors shut to diplomatic parleys.
The specific need to convince China not to act on its expansionistic dreams or impulses while Ukraine remains on the boil is the sine quo non of this entire US efforts directed in this part of the world. China had chosen to go to war against India in 1962 when at the exact moment the US&USSR were locked in a tense standoff in the ‘Cuban missile crisis”. The Chinese had been informed of the possibility of such a standoff by their Soviet allies. Picking the exact period of the ‘Cuban missile crisis for its military offensive against India in 1962 allowed China not only avoid the big stick approach of US foreign policy but also staved off the possibility of intervention from Moscow on New Delhi’s side. True to its form, Chinese attacked Aksai chin and Arunachal Pradesh 4 days after the ‘Cuban missile crisis began and unilaterally declared ceasefire the day after the crisis was defused.
China similarly took advantage of the spread of the Corona pandemic a worldwide distraction in March 2020 and rampaged across the Himalayas 2 months later in May 2020 which saw the first deadly clash between the PLA&IA after 1967 Nathu la –Chola clashes.
It stands to logic that China has not taken the positioning of US air craft carriers kindly and sent a barrage of fighter bombers of its air force to harass Taiwanese air space. However the silver lining in this whole tense standoff of Geo-political nature could be two factors that could work to tie down Beijing’s hands for time being.One is the strong signaling from the US and the other is that China may not risk any more global political alienation as it prepares for the incoming inauguration of winter Olympics in February this year. Another tenet of ‘Sun Tzu” which China has very deftly meshed with its earlier principle of strategic warfare is the facet of ‘Timing is essential”.When these two tenets i.e. ‘In chaos lies opportunity’ and ‘Timing is essential’ co-terminate it gives a heady cocktail of success which no power on this earth could shake off any nation leave alone China from achieving its strategic goals. As former US President JF Kennedy has very aptly said – when written in Chinese the word “crisis’ is composed of two characters,one represents “danger” and the other represents “opportunity”. What better way to sum up the Chinese race in totality. Be that as it may, it seems that ‘Sun Tzu’ the master strategist must be turning in his grave and giving a big grin to himself for vindication of his tenets of strategy as witnessed by the world at large coming to fruition.
