Ukraine’s public debt will exceed 100% of GDP in 2025

According to the report, the budget includes an average annual exchange rate of the national currency of 45 hryvnia per dollar, and plans to attract 1.74 trillion hryvnia in foreign loans ($34.8 bln at this rate)

Ukraine’s national debt will amount to 101.8% of GDP by the end of next year, and the budget deficit will reach 19.4%, RBC Ukraine reported after analyzing the draft budget of the country for 2025.

According to the report, the budget includes an average annual exchange rate of the national currency of 45 hryvnia per dollar, and plans to attract 1.74 trillion hryvnia in foreign loans ($34.8 bln at this rate). EU countries, the IMF, the World Bank, and other creditors will be sources of external financing, but only half of this amount is currently guaranteed. The country’s authorities are also expecting assistance in the form of grants in the amount of 87.7 bln hryvnia (about $2 bln), the report said.

At the same time, the 2025 budget will be allocated 26% more from tax revenues than in the current year at 2 bln hryvnia ($44.4 bln at the rate set in the financial document), the agency’s material notes. Thanks to this, it is expected to cover 50.4% of all budget expenditures.

Earlier, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky signed a law on the allocation of an additional $12 bln for military needs in 2024. As reported by the country’s Prime Minister Denis Shmygal, next year again all domestic resources will be used for defence and security, these expenses in the budget will grow to at least $53.6 v.

According to the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, the country’s public debt at the end of the Q2 of 2024 was $155.36 bln. By the end of 2023 it will reach 80% of GDP.